ACWI over past 60 days: cumulative return +7.4%, annualized vol 9.9%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: ACWI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=121.44, end=130.36, cumulative_return=+7.4%, annualized_volatility=9.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 323.291, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.51, 't10y3m_spread': -0.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.4, 'hy_oas': 2.94, 'ig_oas': 0.8, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.63, 'vix': 16.25}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-Q UNH 2025-08-11] unh-20250630 false 2025 Q2 0000731766 12/31 50 xbrli:shares iso4217:USD iso4217:USD xbrli:shares utr:Rate xbrli:pure unh:reportableSegments 0000731766 2025-01-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 2025-07-31 0000731766 2025-06-30 0000731766 2024-12-31 0000731766 2025-04-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 2024-04-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 2024-01-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2025-04-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2024-04-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2025-01-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ProductMember 2024-01-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2025-04-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2024-04-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2025-01-01 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:ServiceMember 2024-01-01 2024-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-03-31 0000731766 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-03-31 0000731766 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-03-31 0000731766 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us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel2Member 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:FairValueInputsLevel3Member 2025-06-30 0000731766 us-gaap:USTr [...TRUNCATED...] #8217;s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on February 26, 2021) 4.1 Amended and Restated Indenture, dated as of April 27, 2023, between UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and Wilmington Trust Company, as successor trustee (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 4.1 to UnitedHealth Group Incorporated’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 28, 2023) 4.2 Indenture, dated as of February 4, 2008, between UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and U.S. Bank National Association (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 4.1 to the Company’s Registration Statement on Form S-3, SEC File Number 333-149031, filed on February 4, 2008) 4.3 Supplemental Indenture, dated as of April 18, 2023, between UnitedHealth Group Incorporated and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee, relating to the 6.875% Senior Notes due 2038 (incorporated by reference to Exhibit 4.1 to UnitedHealth Group Incorporated’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 24, 2023) * 10. 1 Employment Agreeme nt, effective as of May 12, 2025, between United HealthC are Services, Inc. and Stephen Hemsely 31.1 Certifications pursuant to Section 302 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 32.1 Certifications pursuant to Section 906 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 101.INS XBRL Instance Document - the instance document does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document. 101.SCH Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document. 101.CAL Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document. 101.DEF Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document. 101.LAB Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document. 101.PRE Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document. 104  Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted as Inline XBRL and embedded within Exhibit 101).  ________________ * Denotes management contracts and compensation plans in which certain directors and named executive officers participate and which are being filed pursuant to Item 601(b)(10)(iii)(A) of Regulation S-K. ** Pursuant to Item 601(b)(4)(iii) of Regulation S-K, copies of instruments defining the rights of certain holders of long-term debt are not filed. The Company will furnish copies thereof to the SEC upon request. 27 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.   UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED   /s/ S TEPHEN H EMSLEY Chair and Chief Executive Officer (principal executive officer) Dated: August 11, 2025 Stephen Hemsley    /s/ J OHN R EX President and Chief Financial Officer (principal financial officer) Dated: August 11, 2025 John Rex    /s/ T HOMAS R OOS Senior Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) Dated: August 11, 2025 Thomas Roos    28

Predict whether the return of ACWI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ACWI starting 2025-08-12 was +2.71%, which classifies as 'positive'.


MTUM over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.1%, annualized vol 12.3%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: MTUM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=228.90, end=252.01, cumulative_return=+10.1%, annualized_volatility=12.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 324.245, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.5, 't10y3m_spread': -0.02, 'breakeven_10y': 2.36, 'hy_oas': 2.79, 'ig_oas': 0.77, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.35, 'vix': 14.760000228881836}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-09-05] ["Trump Warns of \u2018Fairly Substantial\u2019 Tariff on Semiconductors. What It Means for Chip Stocks. President Donald Trump said a tariff on imports of chips is coming \u201cvery shortly\u201d for companies that aren\u2019t shifting production to the U.S.", "Inside eBay\u2019s Quest to Become an AI Leader How the 30-year-old e-commerce giant is going all-in on artificial intelligence, hoping the technology can help it update its image and beat mounting competition.", "Trump Basks in Tech Leaders\u2019 Spending Vows at White House Dinner (Bloomberg) \u2014 Meta Platforms Inc.\u2019s (META) Mark Zuckerberg and Apple Inc.\u2019s (AAPL) Tim Cook joined tech industry leaders in touting their pledges to boost spending in the US on artificial intelligence during a dinner hosted by President Donald Trump that highlighted his deepening relationship with Silicon Valley. Most Read from Bloomberg One of World\u2019s Most Liveable Cities Ends Euro-a-Day Travel Pass Chicago\u2019s Citadel Center for Sale 3 Years After Miami Move Philadelphia Transit Cuts Portend \u2018Mayhem\u2019 for Commutes and Regional Economy One-Way Streets Are the Wrong Way to Tame Downtown Traffic Self-Driving Cars Take a Turn Toward the Villainous, in Movies and Real Life In his opening remarks, Trump addressed a key concern of tech companies: ensuring there\u2019s enough energy to meet surging power demands from the data centers behind the AI boom. \u201cWe\u2019re making it very easy for you in terms of electric capacity and getting it for you, getting your permits,\u201d Trump said in the White House State Dining Room. \u201cWe\u2019re leading China by a lot, by a really, by a great amount.\u201d Thursday\u2019s dinner marked a rare gathering in Washington of top executives and founders from some of the world\u2019s most valuable tech companies \u2014 all vying for an edge in the emerging field of AI. Attendees also included OpenAI Inc.\u2019s (OPAI.PVT) Sam Altman, Alphabet Inc.\u2019s (GOOG, GOOGL) Sundar Pichai and co-founder Sergey Brin, and Microsoft Corp.\u2019s (MSFT) Satya Nadella and Bill Gates. The president went around the table asking executives to talk about their plans. Corporate leaders took turns highlighting their efforts to expand in the US, with each expressing gratitude for administration policies they see as bolstering efforts to advance AI. Trump asked Zuckerberg to speak first. \u201cAll of the companies here are building, just making huge investments in the country in order to build out data centers and infrastructure to power the next wave of innovation,\u201d the Meta CEO told Trump. Pressed by the president on how much his company was investing, Zuckerberg said \u201cat least $600 billion\u201d through 2028. \u201cThat\u2019s a lot,\u201d Trump said. In recent days, the president has touted a massive data center Meta is building in Louisiana that will cost $50 billion. Trump has drawn tech executives into his orbit with an agenda aimed at lowering tax

Predict whether the return of MTUM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for MTUM starting 2025-09-15 was +0.04%, which classifies as 'flat'.


TLT over past 60 days: cumulative return +2.1%, annualized vol 11.3%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: TLT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=81.96, end=83.65, cumulative_return=+2.1%, annualized_volatility=11.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 323.291, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.57, 't10y3m_spread': 0.01, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 2.88, 'ig_oas': 0.77, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.58, 'vix': 14.989999771118164}
Market regime: bull

Predict whether the return of TLT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for TLT starting 2025-08-19 was +4.67%, which classifies as 'positive'.


LINK-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +25.1%, annualized vol 97.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: LINK-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=18.89, end=23.62, cumulative_return=+25.1%, annualized_volatility=97.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 318.961, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.34, 't10y3m_spread': 0.24, 'breakeven_10y': 2.4, 'hy_oas': 2.68, 'ig_oas': 0.81, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.96, 'vix': 16.559999465942383}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of LINK-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for LINK-USD starting 2025-01-30 was -25.23%, which classifies as 'negative'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -13.4%, annualized vol 70.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=21.65, end=18.74, cumulative_return=-13.4%, annualized_volatility=70.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 321.435, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.56, 't10y3m_spread': -0.1, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.02, 'ig_oas': 0.88, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.77, 'vix': 16.31999969482422}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2025-06-30 was +41.61%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLY over past 60 days: cumulative return -11.3%, annualized vol 20.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLY
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=114.95, end=101.94, cumulative_return=-11.3%, annualized_volatility=20.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 319.785, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.33, 't10y3m_spread': -0.05, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 2.99, 'ig_oas': 0.88, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.63, 'vix': 24.8700008392334}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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us-gaap:OtherCurrentLiabilitiesMember 2023-12-31 0 [...TRUNCATED...] my Extension Presentation Linkbase *101.DEF Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Document 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File - the cover page interactive data file does not appear in the Interactive Data File because its XBRL tags are embedded within the Inline XBRL document. ITEM 16. FORM 10-K SUMMARY None. SIGNATURES Under the requirements of Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report was signed on behalf of the Registrant by the authorized person named below. Pfizer Inc. Dated: February 27, 2025 By: /S/    MARGARET M. MADDEN Margaret M. Madden Senior Vice President and Corporate Secretary Chief Governance Counsel We, the undersigned directors and officers of Pfizer Inc., hereby severally constitute Douglas M. Lankler and Margaret M. Madden, and each of them singly, our true and lawful attorneys with full power to them and each of them to sign for us, in our names in the capacities indicated below, any and all amendments to this Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Under the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, this report was signed by the following persons on behalf of the Registrant and in the capacities and on the date indicated . Pfizer Inc. 2024 Form 10-K 113 Signature Title Date /S/    ALBERT BOURLA Albert Bourla Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Director (Principal Executive Officer) February 27, 2025 /S/    DAVID M. DENTON David M. Denton Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President (Principal Financial Officer) February 27, 2025 /S/    JENNIFER B. DAMICO Jennifer B. Damico Senior Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) February 27, 2025 /S/    RONALD E. BLAYLOCK Ronald E. Blaylock Director February 27, 2025 /S/    MORTIMER J. BUCKLEY Mortimer J. Buckley Director February 27, 2025 /S/    SUSAN DESMOND-HELLMANN Susan Desmond-Hellmann Director February 27, 2025 /S/    JOSEPH J. ECHEVARRIA Joseph J. Echevarria Director February 27, 2025 /S/    SCOTT GOTTLIEB Scott Gottlieb Director February 27, 2025 /S/    HELEN H. HOBBS Helen H. Hobbs Director February 27, 2025 /S/    SUSAN HOCKFIELD Susan Hockfield Director February 27, 2025 /S/    DAN R. LITTMAN Dan R. Littman Director February 27, 2025 /S/    SHANTANU NARAYEN Shantanu Narayen Director February 27, 2025 /S/    SUZANNE NORA JOHNSON Suzanne Nora Johnson Director February 27, 2025 /S/    JAMES QUINCEY James Quincey Director February 27, 2025 /S/    JAMES C. SMITH James C. Smith Director February 27, 2025 /S/    CYRUS TARAPOREVALA Cyrus Taraporevala Director February 27, 2025 Pfizer Inc. 2024 Form 10-K 114

Predict whether the return of XLY over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLY starting 2025-03-07 was -11.93%, which classifies as 'negative'.


VTI over past 60 days: cumulative return -7.6%, annualized vol 22.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VTI
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=297.31, end=274.72, cumulative_return=-7.6%, annualized_volatility=22.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.62, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.49, 't10y3m_spread': 0.03, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.53, 'ig_oas': 1.02, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.76, 'vix': 21.89999961853028}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-05-09] ["Cathie Wood Just Bought These 2 Stocks Down 42% and 87%. Should You? Airbnb looks like a value stock today, but it's planning a new launch next week that could boost its position. Roku is still reporting strong growth, but investors are still waiting for profits. 10 stocks we like better than Airbnb \u203a Cathie Wood has made a name for herself as a top growth investor. She has made some bold moves as head of investing company Ark Invest. Although some of Ark's exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have a spotty track record, some of them have outperformed the market, and she has drawn attention to her company's trades, which are reported daily. Although Wood has a specific, innovation-driven approach to investing, her model is the same \"buy low, sell high\" model that underpins most successful investing. When stocks she likes go on sale, you're more likely to see them in Ark's shopping cart. Airbnb (NASDAQ: ABNB) and Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU) are two disruptive, high-opportunity stocks Ark just bought. Should they be in your shopping cart, too? Airbnb is a top brand name in travel, but its stock has been in the doldrums for quite a while. It's a case of skyrocketing too quickly based on market hype, and the stock has never been able to find its ground. Each time it looks compelling, the stock soars before dropping down in the aftermath. With all that volatility, it's only gained 84% since its first-day closing price. Will things finally start changing for this beleaguered stock? There are a lot of things happening at Airbnb, and the time might be ripe for taking off. Performance-wise, things have only been so-so. Revenue increased 6% year over year in the 2025 first quarter, which doesn't sound like a growth stock. Airbnb has made the jump from unprofitable growth stock to profitable industry leader, which is when many value investors might jump in if the price is right. Net income was lower in Q1, but the company is generating lots of cash, and trailing 12-month free cash flow is $4.4 billion with a 39% margin. The question is how much bigger Airbnb can grow. Management is expecting revenue to increase about 10% year over year in the second quarter, which would be a welcome acceleration. It's keeping a lid on a major launch that it's unveiling next week, but that's going to expand \"beyond the core,\" something it's been talking about for years already. As the platform it is today, investors can expect continued growth from tech enhancements, more hosts, and better features, but these are likely to be incremental. A huge shift in business could boost growth potential, so investors should follow what the company announced on May 13. At the current price, Airbnb stock trades at a forward, 1-year price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25, and price-to-free cash flow is a strong value at 18. I wouldn't call it bargain territory, but it doesn't look overvalued. If you have a long time horizon, Airbnb stock should eventually find its footing and reward investors, but

Predict whether the return of VTI over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VTI starting 2025-05-12 was +3.08%, which classifies as 'positive'.


XLF over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.6%, annualized vol 22.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLF
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=49.27, end=50.08, cumulative_return=+1.6%, annualized_volatility=22.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.62, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.51, 't10y3m_spread': 0.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3.22, 'ig_oas': 0.9, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.89, 'vix': 19.18000030517578}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-05-29] ["Microsoft Shares Go From Laggard to Leader as AI Growth Improves (Bloomberg) -- After languishing for months, Microsoft Corp. shares are back within striking distance of a record high amid signs that performance in its Azure cloud-computing business is back on track. Most Read from Bloomberg NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight Now With Colorful Blocks, Tirana\u2019s Pyramid Represents a Changing Albania The Economic Benefits of Paying Workers to Move NY Congestion Pricing Is Likely to Stay Until Year End During Court Case The software giant\u2019s shares are about 1.5% shy of the record reached last July, with their 16% advance in May putting them on track for the best month in more than three years. The rally has been fueled by the broader rebound in US equities, as well as better-than-expected results from Azure, which investors are betting will continue as artificial intelligence drives more business. \u201cAI is becoming a bigger and bigger component of those revenues,\u201d said Nancy Tengler, chief executive officer at Laffer Tengler Investments. \u201cI do think it\u2019s a sustainer.\u201d The strength in Microsoft shares is a stark reversal from last year, when concerns about its position in the AI race and disappointing Azure growth weighed on the stock. Microsoft\u2019s 12% advance in 2024 made it the worst performer among the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, which also includes Apple Inc., Nvidia Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. This year, Microsoft\u2019s 9% advance has outperformed all of those peers save for Meta, which is up 10%. In addition to benefiting from limited exposure to President Donald Trump\u2019s tariffs, Microsoft emerged as one of the biggest winners from a mostly strong earnings season for Big Tech. The Redmond, Washington-based company reported revenue and profit in its fiscal third quarter that beat Wall Street estimates. Azure was the standout, with revenue growth of 33% exceeding expectations. Azure\u2019s sales include both AI services \u2014 the computing power that backs OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT and similar tools \u2014 and other products like databases and on-demand storage. Microsoft Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said last month that it was those non-AI businesses that outperformed expectations in the most recent quarter. This week, TD Cowen analysts led by Derrick Wood projected that AI-related Azure revenue would rise to about $24 billion in the 2026 fiscal year, from roughly $4 billion in fiscal 2024. The analysts, who have a buy rating on the stock, raised their price target to $540 from $490, implying a potential gain of about 18% from Wednesday\u2019s closing price. Of the 72 analysts tracked by Bloomberg that cover Microsoft, only 6 have hold ratings and none recommend selling. \u201cA return to Azure upside trends and firmer growth in the mid-30% level should help dr

Predict whether the return of XLF over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLF starting 2025-05-30 was +3.12%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EFA over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.6%, annualized vol 12.5%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EFA
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=75.92, end=76.40, cumulative_return=+0.6%, annualized_volatility=12.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 318.961, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.36, 't10y3m_spread': 0.24, 'breakeven_10y': 2.42, 'hy_oas': 2.66, 'ig_oas': 0.81, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.96, 'vix': 16.40999984741211}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
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us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-06-30 0000080424 pg:R [...TRUNCATED...] 7 billion in fiscal year 2025, notwithstanding any purchases under the Company's compensation and benefit plans. Purchases may be made in the open market and/or private transactions and purchases may be increased, decreased or discontinued at any time without prior notice. The share repurchases are authorized pursuant to a resolution issued by the Company's Board of Directors and are expected to be financed by a combination of operating cash flows and issuance of debt.      Item 5. Other Information During the three months ended December 31, 2024, none of our directors or officers adopted or terminated a "Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" or "non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement" as defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K. 30 The Procter & Gamble Company Item 6. Exhibits 3.1 Amended Articles of Incorporation (as amended by shareholders at the annual meeting on October 11, 2011 and consolidated by the Board of Directors on April 8, 2016) (Incorporated by reference to Exhibit (3-1) of the Company's Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2016) 3.2 Regulations (as approved by the Board of Directors on December 13, 2022, pursuant to authority granted by shareholders at the annual meeting on October 13, 2009) (Incorporated by reference to Exhibit (3-2) of the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed December 13, 2022) 4.1 Indenture, dated as of September 3, 2009, between the Company and Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, as Trustee (Incorporated by reference to Exhibit (4-1) of the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended June 30, 2015) 31.1 Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a) Certification – Chief Executive Officer + 31.2 Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a) Certification – Chief Financial Officer + 32.1 Section 1350 Certifications – Chief Executive Officer + 32.2 Section 1350 Certifications – Chief Financial Officer + 101.SCH (1) Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document 101.CAL (1) Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document 101.DEF (1) Inline XBRL Taxonomy Definition Linkbase Document 101.LAB (1) Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document 101.PRE (1) Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document 104  Cover Page Interactive Data File (formatted in Inline XBRL and contained in Exhibit 101) + Filed herewith (1) Pursuant to Rule 406T of Regulation S-T, this information is furnished and not filed for purposes of Sections 11 or 12 of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and otherwise is not subject to liability under these sections. Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this Report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized. THE PROCTER & GAMBLE COMPANY January 22, 2025 /s/ MATTHEW W. JANZARUK Date (Matthew W. Janzaruk) Senior Vice President - Chief Accounting Officer (Principal Accounting Officer)

Predict whether the return of EFA over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EFA starting 2025-01-29 was +3.11%, which classifies as 'positive'.


HAUZ over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.0%, annualized vol 12.0%. Market regime: bear.

Question:
Asset: HAUZ
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=18.96, end=19.54, cumulative_return=+3.0%, annualized_volatility=12.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.302, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.3, 't10y3m_spread': -0.15, 'breakeven_10y': 2.33, 'hy_oas': 3.5, 'ig_oas': 0.98, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.65, 'vix': 21.770000457763672}
Market regime: bear

Predict whether the return of HAUZ over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for HAUZ starting 2025-04-02 was +7.52%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EMB over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.7%, annualized vol 4.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EMB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=90.59, end=93.98, cumulative_return=+3.7%, annualized_volatility=4.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.88, 'cpi_yoy': 325.063, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 0.16, 'breakeven_10y': 2.28, 'hy_oas': 3.13, 'ig_oas': 0.84, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.24, 'vix': 22.3799991607666}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of EMB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EMB starting 2025-11-18 was +0.42%, which classifies as 'flat'.


BNB-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +12.9%, annualized vol 28.7%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: BNB-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=577.41, end=652.15, cumulative_return=+12.9%, annualized_volatility=28.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 321.435, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.47, 't10y3m_spread': 0.08, 'breakeven_10y': 2.31, 'hy_oas': 3.09, 'ig_oas': 0.87, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.85, 'vix': 16.770000457763672}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of BNB-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BNB-USD starting 2025-06-09 was -1.34%, which classifies as 'negative'.


TLT over past 60 days: cumulative return +4.7%, annualized vol 11.0%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: TLT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=83.50, end=87.47, cumulative_return=+4.7%, annualized_volatility=11.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 324.245, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.56, 't10y3m_spread': -0.05, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 2.84, 'ig_oas': 0.8, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.5, 'vix': 15.109999656677246}
Market regime: bull

Predict whether the return of TLT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for TLT starting 2025-09-09 was +0.37%, which classifies as 'flat'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -5.5%, annualized vol 55.4%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=4079.06, end=3856.03, cumulative_return=-5.5%, annualized_volatility=55.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.11, 'cpi_yoy': 324.245, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 0.06, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 2.96, 'ig_oas': 0.78, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.19, 'vix': 17.299999237060547}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2025-10-24 was -21.11%, which classifies as 'negative'.


XLK over past 60 days: cumulative return +11.8%, annualized vol 18.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLK
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=129.40, end=144.70, cumulative_return=+11.8%, annualized_volatility=18.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.87, 'cpi_yoy': 325.063, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.52, 't10y3m_spread': 0.13, 'breakeven_10y': 2.27, 'hy_oas': 3.02, 'ig_oas': 0.83, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.22, 'vix': 17.510000228881836}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-Q CVX 2025-11-06] cvx-20250930 0000093410 12/31 2025 Q3 false xbrli:shares iso4217:USD iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure cvx:segment cvx:lawsuit cvx:state cvx:tribe cvx:parish 0000093410 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 2025-09-30 0000093410 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 2024-12-31 0000093410 2023-12-31 0000093410 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-06-30 0000093410 2024-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-07-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-06-30 0000093410 2025-06-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-07-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:CommonStockIncludingAdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:TreasuryStockCommonMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedNetUnrealizedInvestmentGainLossMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossNetCashFlowHedgeParentMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentMember 2023-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedNetUnrealizedInvestmentGainLossMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossNetCashFlowHedgeParentMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentMember 2024-01-01 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedNetUnrealizedInvestmentGainLossMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossNetCashFlowHedgeParentMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentMember 2024-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedNetUnrealizedInvestmentGainLossMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossNetCashFlowHedgeParentMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentMember 2024-12-31 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedNetUnrealizedInvestmentGainLossMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedGainLossNetCashFlowHedgeParentMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedDefinedBenefitPlansAdjustmentMember 2025-01-01 2025-09-30 0000093410 us-gaap:AccumulatedTranslationAdjustmentMember 2025-09-30 0000093410 [...TRUNCATED...] 160; $154.38 16,620,000   (1) Includes common shares repurchased from participants in the company’s executive compensation plans for personal income tax withholdings. (2) Refer to “Liquidity and Capital Resources” for additional information regarding the company’s authorized stock repurchase program. Item 5. Other Information Rule 10b5-1 Plan Elections During the three months ended September 30, 2025, none of our directors or executive officers adopted, modified or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or a non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement, as such terms are defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K. 47 Table of Contents Item 6. Exhibits Exhibit Index Exhibit Number Description 4.1 Fourth Supplemental Indenture, dated as of August 13, 2025, among Chevron U.S.A. Inc., Chevron Corporation, as guarantor, and Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, as trustee, filed as Exhibit 4. 2 to Chevron Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed August 13, 2025, and incorporated herein by reference . 4.2 Forms of 3.950% Notes Due 2027, 4.050% Notes Due 2028, Floating Rate Notes Due 2028-B, 4.300% Notes Due 2030, Floating Rate Notes due 2030, 4.500% Notes Due 2032 and 4.850% Notes Due 2035, contained in Exhibit 4.2 to Chevron Corporation’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed August 13, 2025, and incorporated herein by reference . 10.1+* Aircraft Time-Sharing Agreement, dated as of February 24, 2015, between Hess Corporation and John B. Hess. 10.2* Transition Services Agreement, dated as of July 14, 2025, between Chevron U.S.A. Inc. and HFO Holdings LLC . 10.3* Amendment One to Transition Services Agreement, dated as of August 27, 2025, between Chevron U.S.A. Inc. and HFO Holdings LLC . 10.4* Membership Interest Purchase Agreement, dated as of September 10, 2025, between Hess Corporation and JBH Ventures, LLC . 31.1* Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a) Certification by the company’s Chief Executive Officer 31.2* Rule 13a-14(a)/15d-14(a) Certification by the company’s Chief Financial Officer 32.1** Rule 13a-14(b)/15d-14(b) Certification by the company’s Chief Executive Officer 32.2** Rule 13a-14(b)/15d-14(b) Certification by the company’s Chief Financial Officer 101* Interactive data files (formatted as Inline XBRL) 104* Cover Page Interactive Data File (contained in Exhibit 101) ____________________________________________ + Indicates a management contract or compensatory plan or arrangement. *    Filed herewith. **     Furnished herewith. 48 Table of Contents SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.   C HEVRON C ORPORATION (R EGISTRANT ) / S /   A LANA K. K NOWLES Alana K. Knowles, Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer and Duly Authorized Officer) Date: November 6, 2025 49

Predict whether the return of XLK over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLK starting 2025-11-13 was +0.28%, which classifies as 'flat'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +45.7%, annualized vol 72.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=1827.32, end=2663.07, cumulative_return=+45.7%, annualized_volatility=72.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.62, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.51, 't10y3m_spread': 0.08, 'breakeven_10y': 2.32, 'hy_oas': 3.24, 'ig_oas': 0.91, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.86, 'vix': 18.959999084472656}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2025-05-28 was -5.89%, which classifies as 'negative'.


DBC over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.3%, annualized vol 15.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: DBC
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=20.95, end=20.68, cumulative_return=-1.3%, annualized_volatility=15.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 317.604, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23586.542, 't10y2y_spread': 0.33, 't10y3m_spread': 0.21, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 2.92, 'ig_oas': 0.82, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.85, 'vix': 17.350000381469727}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of DBC over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DBC starting 2025-01-01 was +2.95%, which classifies as 'positive'.


CORN over past 60 days: cumulative return -0.7%, annualized vol 12.0%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: CORN
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=17.72, end=17.60, cumulative_return=-0.7%, annualized_volatility=12.0%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.88, 'cpi_yoy': 325.063, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.55, 't10y3m_spread': 0.16, 'breakeven_10y': 2.24, 'hy_oas': 3.19, 'ig_oas': 0.86, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.26, 'vix': 23.43000030517578}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of CORN over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for CORN starting 2025-11-24 was +1.93%, which classifies as 'positive'.


ETH-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -30.4%, annualized vol 55.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: ETH-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=3349.51, end=2331.45, cumulative_return=-30.4%, annualized_volatility=55.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 319.679, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.2, 't10y3m_spread': -0.06, 'breakeven_10y': 2.36, 'hy_oas': 2.81, 'ig_oas': 0.84, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.85, 'vix': 19.100000381469727}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of ETH-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ETH-USD starting 2025-02-27 was -14.03%, which classifies as 'negative'.


EMB over past 60 days: cumulative return +1.9%, annualized vol 9.3%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EMB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=86.04, end=87.69, cumulative_return=+1.9%, annualized_volatility=9.3%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 321.435, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.46, 't10y3m_spread': -0.1, 'breakeven_10y': 2.25, 'hy_oas': 3.17, 'ig_oas': 0.88, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.84, 'vix': 18.020000457763672}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of EMB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EMB starting 2025-06-13 was +1.36%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return -5.9%, annualized vol 14.2%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=43.69, end=41.10, cumulative_return=-5.9%, annualized_volatility=14.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 318.961, 'unemployment': 4.0, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.34, 't10y3m_spread': 0.27, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'hy_oas': 2.66, 'ig_oas': 0.82, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 7.04, 'vix': 15.970000267028809}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-Q WMT 2024-12-06] wmt-20241031 0000104169 1/31 2025 Q3 false 451 xbrli:shares iso4217:USD iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure iso4217:JPY wmt:state wmt:county wmt:defendant wmt:case wmt:classAction wmt:securitiesClassAction wmt:shareholder wmt:derivativeAction wmt:pharmacist wmt:segment 0000104169 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:CommonStockparvalue0.10pershareMember 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A2.550NotesDue2026Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1050NotesDue2026Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1500NotesDue2028Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A4875NotesDue2029Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5750NotesDue2030Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1800NotesDue2031Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5625NotesDue2034Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5250NotesDue2035Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A4875NotesDue2039Member 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 2024-12-04 0000104169 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 2023-02-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 2024-10-31 0000104169 2024-01-31 0000104169 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 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us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-01-31 0000104169 2023-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-02-01 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-04-30 0000104169 2023-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-05-01 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-07-31 0000104169 2023-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2023-08-01 2023-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:Com [...TRUNCATED...] assumptions not being realized or other factors, the actual results relating to the subject matter of any forward-looking statement in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q may differ materially from the anticipated results expressed or implied in that forward-looking statement. The forward-looking statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q are made only as of the date of this report, and Walmart undertakes no obligation to update any such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. 35 Table of Contents Item 6. Exhibits The following documents are filed as an exhibit to this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q: Exhibit 3.1(a) Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company dated February 1, 2018 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 1, 2018 Exhibit 3.1(b) Certificate of Amendment to the Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company, effective February 23, 2024 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 23, 2024 Exhibit 3.2 Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Company dated November 10, 2022 are incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on November 16, 2022 Exhibit 31.1* Chief Executive Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 31.2* Chief Financial Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 32.1** Chief Executive Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 32.2** Chief Financial Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 99.1* Opioids-Related Litigation Case Citations and Currently Scheduled Trial Dates Exhibit 101.INS* Inline XBRL Instance Document Exhibit 101.SCH* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document Exhibit 101.CAL* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.DEF* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.LAB* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.PRE* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document Exhibit 104 The cover page from the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 31, 2024, formatted in Inline XBRL (included in Exhibit 101) * Filed herewith as an Exhibit. ** Furnished herewith as an Exhibit. 36 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.   WALMART INC. Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ C. Douglas McMillon C. Douglas McMillon President and Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer) Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ John David Rainey John David Rainey Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) Date: December 6, 2024 By: /s/ David M. Chojnowski David M. Chojnowski Senior Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) 37

Predict whether the return of EEM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2025-01-21 was +5.85%, which classifies as 'positive'.


BTC-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +0.0%, annualized vol 25.2%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: BTC-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=103998.57, end=103998.57, cumulative_return=+0.0%, annualized_volatility=25.2%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.09, 'cpi_yoy': 324.245, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.54, 't10y3m_spread': 0.14, 'breakeven_10y': 2.38, 'hy_oas': 2.76, 'ig_oas': 0.77, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.3, 'vix': 16.739999771118164}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of BTC-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: flat

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for BTC-USD starting 2025-09-26 was +0.00%, which classifies as 'flat'.


XLB over past 60 days: cumulative return -1.4%, annualized vol 15.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: XLB
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=44.71, end=44.07, cumulative_return=-1.4%, annualized_volatility=15.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.89, 'cpi_yoy': 326.031, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.57, 't10y3m_spread': 0.34, 'breakeven_10y': 2.24, 'hy_oas': 2.89, 'ig_oas': 0.81, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.23, 'vix': 16.079999923706055}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[SEC 10-Q WMT 2025-12-03] wmt-20251031 0000104169 1/31 2026 Q3 false 178 340 294 xbrli:shares iso4217:USD iso4217:USD xbrli:shares xbrli:pure wmt:state wmt:territory wmt:case wmt:classAction wmt:securitiesClassAction wmt:pharmacist wmt:employee wmt:phase wmt:supplierContribution iso4217:MXN wmt:segment 0000104169 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:CommonStockparvalue0.10pershareMember 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A2.550NotesDue2026Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1050NotesDue2026Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1500NotesDue2028Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A4875NotesDue2029Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5750NotesDue2030Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A1800NotesDue2031Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5625NotesDue2034Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A5250NotesDue2035Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 wmt:A4875NotesDue2039Member 2025-02-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 2025-12-02 0000104169 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 2024-02-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 2025-10-31 0000104169 2025-01-31 0000104169 2024-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-02-01 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-04-30 0000104169 2025-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-05-01 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-07-31 0000104169 2025-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-08-01 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2025-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-01-31 0000104169 2024-01-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-02-01 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-04-30 0000104169 2024-04-30 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-05-01 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:CommonStockMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AdditionalPaidInCapitalMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-07-31 0000104169 2024-07-31 0000104169 us-gaap:RetainedEarningsMember 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:ParentMember 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:NoncontrollingInterestMember 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 us-gaap:AccumulatedOtherComprehensiveIncomeMember 2024-08-01 2024-10-31 0000104169 us- [...TRUNCATED...] port, and Walmart undertakes no obligation to update any such statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. 35 Table of Contents Item 6. Exhibits The following documents are filed as an exhibit to this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q: Exhibit 3.1(a) Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company dated February 1, 2018 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 1, 2018 Exhibit 3.1(b) Certificate of Amendment to the Restated Certificate of Incorporation of the Company, effective February 23, 2024 is incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on February 23, 2024 Exhibit 3.2 Amended and Restated Bylaws of the Company dated November 10, 2022 are incorporated herein by reference to Exhibit 3.1 to the Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company on November 16, 2022 Exhibit 10.1* Retirement Agreement between the Company and Doug McMillon dated November 13, 2025 Exhibit 10.2* Form of Walmart Inc. Stock Incentive Plan of 2025 Global Restricted Stock Notification of Award and Terms and Conditions of Award Exhibit 10.3* Form of Walmart Inc. Stock Incentive Plan of 2025 Global Share-Settled Performance-Based Restricted Stock Unit Notification of Award and Terms and Condition s of Award Exhibit 31.1* Chief Executive Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 31.2* Chief Financial Officer Section 302 Certification Exhibit 32.1** Chief Executive Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 32.2** Chief Financial Officer Section 906 Certification Exhibit 99.1* Non-MDL Opioid-Related Litigation Case Citations Exhibit 101.INS* Inline XBRL Instance Document Exhibit 101.SCH* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Schema Document Exhibit 101.CAL* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Calculation Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.DEF* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Definition Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.LAB* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Label Linkbase Document Exhibit 101.PRE* Inline XBRL Taxonomy Extension Presentation Linkbase Document Exhibit 104 The cover page from the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended October 31, 2025, formatted in Inline XBRL (included in Exhibit 101) * Filed herewith as an Exhibit. ** Furnished herewith as an Exhibit. 36 Table of Contents SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.   WALMART INC. Date: December 3, 2025 By: /s/ C. Douglas McMillon C. Douglas McMillon President and Chief Executive Officer (Principal Executive Officer) Date: December 3, 2025 By: /s/ John David Rainey John David Rainey Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer (Principal Financial Officer) Date: December 3, 2025 By: /s/ David M. Chojnowski David M. Chojnowski Senior Vice President and Controller (Principal Accounting Officer) 37

Predict whether the return of XLB over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for XLB starting 2025-12-04 was +3.05%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return -2.3%, annualized vol 21.7%. Market regime: bear.

Question:
Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=41.57, end=40.62, cumulative_return=-2.3%, annualized_volatility=21.7%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.302, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.52, 't10y3m_spread': -0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.17, 'hy_oas': 4.16, 'ig_oas': 1.13, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.62, 'vix': 32.63999938964844}
Market regime: bear
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-04-16] Big banks report Q1 beats, China stops taking Boeing deliveries: Morning Buzz The major averages were fractionally higher near noon, adding slightly to yesterday’s gains as investors reacted to fresh headlines on U.S.-China trade tensions and a new round of corporate earnings. Markets are attempting to stabilize after a rocky stretch, but much of the tone is being shaped by President Trump’s latest tariff decisions. After last week’s escalation, he’s now backing off slightly, offering temporary relief on key consumer electronics and signaling possible concessions for the auto sector. Discover outperforming stocks and invest smarter with Top Smart Score Stocks. Filter, analyze, and streamline your search for investment opportunities using Tipranks' Stock Screener. Looking to commodities, gold shares are up marginally, still hovering above the $3,200 threshold. Meanwhile, oil prices are lower, but only fractionally. Get caught up quickly on the top news and calls moving stocks with these five Top Five lists. 1. STOCK NEWS: Bank of America (BAC) reported better-than-expected Q1 results, with the company saying it grew commercial loans in every line of business in the quarter Citi (C) reported upbeat Q1 earnings and revenue and provided revenue guidance for FY25 Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) reported better-than-expected Q1 results, raised its FY25 operational sales outlook, and increased its quarterly dividend about 5% Lowe’s (LOW) agreed to acquire Artisan Design Group for $1.325B China has ordered airlines to halt further deliveries of Boeing (BA) jets, Bloomberg reports 2. WALL STREET CALLS: General Motors (GM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays HubSpot (HUBS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS PepsiCo (PEP) downgraded to Neutral at BofA on slower snacks growth Nike (NKE) initiated with neutral view at Berenberg, here’s why Benchmark starts “dominant regional leader” MercadoLibre (MELI) with a Buy 3. AROUND THE WEB: Elliott Investment Management has built a large position worth more than $1.5B in HP Enterprise (HPE), Bloomberg says Honda (HMC) is considering plans to relocate the production of models to the U.S. from Mexico and Canada in response to an additional 25% tariff imposed by the Trump Administration, Nikkei reports AMD (AMD) CEO says the company plans to build more AI servers in U.S., Bloomberg says LVMH (LVMUY) is considering moving some of its manufacturing to the U.S. amid Donald Trump’s tariff threats, Business Insider says According to people who attended Netflix’s (NFLX) annual business review meeting last month, the company aims to reach a $1T market capitalization and double its revenue by 2030, WSJ reports 4. MOVERS: Rezolve AI (RZLV) increases after securing a $9.8M annual contract with Liverpool Mexico Eos Energy (EOSE) gains after signing a MOU with Frontier Power Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) higher after its CEO bought $101.6K of the company’s stock Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) lower after On Semi (ON) withdr

Predict whether the return of EEM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2025-04-17 was +10.35%, which classifies as 'positive'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -32.0%, annualized vol 79.6%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=24.48, end=16.65, cumulative_return=-32.0%, annualized_volatility=79.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 3.87, 'cpi_yoy': 325.063, 'unemployment': 4.5, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 0.15, 'breakeven_10y': 2.31, 'hy_oas': 3.04, 'ig_oas': 0.83, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.17, 'vix': 17.170000076293945}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2025-11-04 was -11.57%, which classifies as 'negative'.


ADA-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +7.3%, annualized vol 58.1%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: ADA-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=0.69, end=0.74, cumulative_return=+7.3%, annualized_volatility=58.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 322.169, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.43, 't10y3m_spread': -0.04, 'breakeven_10y': 2.39, 'hy_oas': 2.86, 'ig_oas': 0.79, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.72, 'vix': 16.719999313354492}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of ADA-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for ADA-USD starting 2025-08-01 was +29.94%, which classifies as 'positive'.


WEAT over past 60 days: cumulative return -8.4%, annualized vol 14.1%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: WEAT
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=22.60, end=20.70, cumulative_return=-8.4%, annualized_volatility=14.1%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.1, 'cpi_yoy': 324.245, 'unemployment': 4.4, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24055.749, 't10y2y_spread': 0.53, 't10y3m_spread': 0.03, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.18, 'ig_oas': 0.81, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.3, 'vix': 19.030000686645508}
Market regime: bull

Predict whether the return of WEAT over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for WEAT starting 2025-10-14 was +3.62%, which classifies as 'positive'.


VLUE over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.6%, annualized vol 21.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: VLUE
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=104.58, end=108.36, cumulative_return=+3.6%, annualized_volatility=21.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 321.435, 'unemployment': 4.1, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.49, 't10y3m_spread': 0.03, 'breakeven_10y': 2.3, 'hy_oas': 3.1, 'ig_oas': 0.87, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.84, 'vix': 19.11000061035156}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-06-16] ["My Top 5 AI Stocks to Buy Before the Second Half AI stocks drove market gains over the past two years, but earlier this year they led declines. Investors, worried about the potential impact of import tariffs on the economy, avoided growth stocks. Since, pressure has eased, opening up the door to more possible gains for AI players. 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia \u203a The first half of the year was a turbulent one for stocks in general amid concern President Trump's planned import tariffs would hurt the economy. And this problem weighed most heavily on stocks that depend on growth and investment -- such as those in the field of artificial intelligence (AI). These particular players led indexes higher over the past two years on optimism about spending and the technology's potential, but they lost momentum in March and April. Since, though, the U.S. has made progress on trade talks, and this has lifted market sentiment. Meanwhile, tech companies' earnings reports show no signs of a slowdown in AI spending. This has spurred new gains in AI stocks, and if the U.S. trade situation resolves without excessively high tariffs, these players could continue to advance. With this in mind, here are my top five AI stocks to buy before the second half. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) soared more than 800% over the past two years as investors piled into this stock driving the AI revolution. The company dominates the AI chip market, and these chips are used for the most essential AI tasks. Nvidia hasn't had to wait to benefit from the AI market. The company already has delivered double- or triple-digit growth, with revenue attaining record levels. This momentum is likely to continue as Nvidia is well positioned to power AI across every stage of development, from training through the creation of humanoid robots. I'm confident about this thanks to Nvidia's commitment to innovation -- it's already set out a calendar of chip updates through 2028. This makes it very difficult for rivals to upset its position. Now is a great time to get in on this high-potential player as it's on sale, trading for 33 times forward earnings estimates -- down from more than 50 earlier in the year. Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), which sells some imported goods on its e-commerce site and also works with sellers that import goods, may benefit as trade tensions ease. The company also is winning from AI in two ways: Amazon uses AI tools to streamline operations, resulting in lower costs and greater efficiency. And Amazon, through its cloud unit Amazon Web Services (AWS), sells AI services to customers. AI services already have helped AWS reach a $117 billion annual revenue run rate. All of this could make Amazon a winner in the second half of this year and beyond. On top of this, the company already has demonstrated its earnings strength, growing revenue and profit over time. And its overhaul of its cost structure in recent years should drive even more gains moving forward. Amazon's valuation has falle

Predict whether the return of VLUE over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for VLUE starting 2025-06-17 was +4.54%, which classifies as 'positive'.


EEM over past 60 days: cumulative return +3.4%, annualized vol 21.9%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: EEM
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=43.63, end=45.10, cumulative_return=+3.4%, annualized_volatility=21.9%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.62, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.58, 't10y3m_spread': 0.22, 'breakeven_10y': 2.35, 'hy_oas': 3.25, 'ig_oas': 0.91, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.81, 'vix': 20.8700008392334}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2025-05-21] ["China AI Rally Laggard Baidu Faces Low Bar for Earnings Boost (Bloomberg) -- The current earnings season has largely been a letdown for China\u2019s big tech stocks, lowering the hurdle for Baidu Inc. to impress investors seeking a fresh angle on the artificial intelligence theme. Most Read from Bloomberg Can Frank Gehry\u2019s \u2018Grand LA\u2019 Make Downtown Feel Like a Neighborhood? Chicago\u2019s O\u2019Hare Airport Seeks Up to $4.3 Billion of Muni Debt NJ Transit Makes Deal With Engineers, Ending Three-Day Strike China\u2019s top search engine had made early advances in AI but fell behind as DeepSeek shocked the world with its low-cost model and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. grabbed headlines as well. Baidu\u2019s shares are up 6% in Hong Kong this year, while Alibaba has surged 48% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has climbed 19%. The street has drastically lowered its view on Baidu ahead of its results due later Wednesday, with the average 12-month analyst price target for the stock down 26% over the past year. It\u2019s also now trading at a big discount relative to peers and historical levels. In a similar vein to Alphabet Inc.\u2019s results beat last month, \u201cif Baidu can build a strong case that search is not an ex-growth business and GenAI can boost its existing business including search, that will make the low expectation into the earnings play in favor of the stock price,\u201d said Xiadong Bao, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. China tech stocks have lost some steam since March\u2019s DeepSeek-fueled peak amid concerns over tensions with the US, the health of China\u2019s economy and Beijing\u2019s stimulus plans. Recent earnings from Alibaba and Tencent Holdings Ltd. underwhelmed investors looking for a new catalyst. Advertising still accounts for the bulk of Baidu\u2019s revenue, and investors will be closely watching for clear signs of improvement in the macro-dependent business. UBS AG estimates its ad revenue declined 5.7%, a smaller drop than in the December quarter. The slow ad recovery has been weighing on Baidu\u2019s shares the most, said Kai Wang, a Morningstar Inc. analyst. \u201cOnce advertising comes back, Baidu\u2019s valuation should come up pretty quickly, as that\u2019s likely holding the AI business back,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s one of the few players in China that can actually build out the data centers and AI infrastructure, while its AI offerings with the Ernie model have improved.\u201d The stock\u2019s underperformance has made it cheaper, currently trading at 8.6 times forward earnings estimates, well below its longer-term averages as well as the Hang Seng Tech Index\u2019s 16 times. On the positive side, UBS, Morgan Stanley and others expect Baidu to post robust cloud sales growth of more than 20% for the three months ended March, extending the December period\u2019s AI-driven momentum. Analysts project it will report a narrower decline in overall quarterly revenue and retur

Predict whether the return of EEM over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for EEM starting 2025-05-22 was +1.60%, which classifies as 'positive'.


DOT-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -37.8%, annualized vol 78.8%. Market regime: bear.

Question:
Asset: DOT-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=6.40, end=3.98, cumulative_return=-37.8%, annualized_volatility=78.8%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 319.785, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.33, 't10y3m_spread': -0.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.29, 'hy_oas': 3.4, 'ig_oas': 0.97, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.65, 'vix': 24.65999984741211}
Market regime: bear
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of DOT-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for DOT-USD starting 2025-03-14 was -3.54%, which classifies as 'negative'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return -37.1%, annualized vol 72.6%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=39.82, end=25.03, cumulative_return=-37.1%, annualized_volatility=72.6%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 319.679, 'unemployment': 4.2, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23548.21, 't10y2y_spread': 0.21, 't10y3m_spread': 0.13, 'breakeven_10y': 2.43, 'hy_oas': 2.66, 'ig_oas': 0.8, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.87, 'vix': 14.770000457763672}
Market regime: sideways
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: negative

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2025-02-18 was -25.60%, which classifies as 'negative'.


IAU over past 60 days: cumulative return +10.0%, annualized vol 21.4%. Market regime: sideways.

Question:
Asset: IAU
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=55.39, end=60.93, cumulative_return=+10.0%, annualized_volatility=21.4%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 320.62, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 23770.976, 't10y2y_spread': 0.49, 't10y3m_spread': 0.07, 'breakeven_10y': 2.34, 'hy_oas': 3.2, 'ig_oas': 0.94, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.81, 'vix': 17.829999923706055}
Market regime: sideways

Predict whether the return of IAU over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for IAU starting 2025-05-16 was +7.54%, which classifies as 'positive'.


AVAX-USD over past 60 days: cumulative return +49.3%, annualized vol 65.5%. Market regime: bull.

Question:
Asset: AVAX-USD
Historical prices (past 60 trading days): start=17.23, end=25.73, cumulative_return=+49.3%, annualized_volatility=65.5%
Macro context: {'fed_funds_rate': 4.33, 'cpi_yoy': 323.291, 'unemployment': 4.3, 'gdp_growth_qoq': 24026.834, 't10y2y_spread': 0.58, 't10y3m_spread': -0.01, 'breakeven_10y': 2.41, 'hy_oas': 2.88, 'ig_oas': 0.77, 'ted_spread': 0.09, 'mortgage_30y': 6.58, 'vix': 14.220000267028809}
Market regime: bull
Recent filing/news:
[Kaggle 2023-12-19]

Predict whether the return of AVAX-USD over the next 21 trading days will be: positive (>+1%), negative (<-1%), or flat (within ±1%).

Answer: positive

Explanation: The actual 21-day forward return for AVAX-USD starting 2025-08-25 was +27.65%, which classifies as 'positive'.