Daily Papers

AI agents are reshaping the workspace, leading to drastic change of how humans work. Despite the considerable potential of human-agent collaboration both in preserving human agency and generating economic value, this paradigm remains largely absent from occupational task evaluation, hindered by the difficulty of gathering real human data and accounting for inter-human variability. We introduce CollabSkill, a framework for evaluating human-agent collaboration on real-world occupational tasks. CollabSkill pairs real human workers with AI agents on tasks matched to their occupational background, collecting data that capture the complexity of economically valuable tasks and the usage patterns of real workers. To account for inter-human variability, CollabSkill employs a Bayesian skill rating system to disentangle and quantify the skill contributions of both humans and AI agents. Drawing on over 1,500 prompts from 386 working sessions contributed by 93 human workers, our analysis yields insights on two fronts: on the agent side, rankings on CollabSkill diverge meaningfully from those of existing fully autonomous benchmarks where Codex leads, with Claude Code ranking first; on the human side, CollabSkill reveals that practical experience emerges as the primary driver of collaboration skill, with hands-on collaboration meaningfully shifting workers' AI literacy. Together, we hope CollabSkill enables the community to invest in systematic evaluation of human-agent collaboration and spurs development efforts aimed at building AI agents that genuinely augment human workers.

To take the esports scene to the next level, we introduce PandaSkill, a framework for assessing player performance and skill rating. Traditional rating systems like Elo and TrueSkill often overlook individual contributions and face challenges in professional esports due to limited game data and fragmented competitive scenes. PandaSkill leverages machine learning to estimate in-game player performance from individual player statistics. Each in-game role is modeled independently, ensuring a fair comparison between them. Then, using these performance scores, PandaSkill updates the player skill ratings using the Bayesian framework OpenSkill in a free-for-all setting. In this setting, skill ratings are updated solely based on performance scores rather than game outcomes, hightlighting individual contributions. To address the challenge of isolated rating pools that hinder cross-regional comparisons, PandaSkill introduces a dual-rating system that combines players' regional ratings with a meta-rating representing each region's overall skill level. Applying PandaSkill to five years of professional League of Legends matches worldwide, we show that our method produces skill ratings that better predict game outcomes and align more closely with expert opinions compared to existing methods.

LLM agents increasingly rely on external inference conditions: prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback. These assets can improve task execution without changing model weights, but they are often revised by heuristic reflection or by reusing observed successes and failures as if counts alone were reliable belief. We introduce Bayesian-Agent, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable skills and SOPs as hypotheses about whether a frozen model will succeed under a particular prompt, context, and harness environment. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectory evidence, maintains a feature-conditioned categorical posterior over each skill, and maps posterior state into inspectable actions such as patch, split, compress, retire, and explore. Model-facing prompts receive executable guardrails and failure-mode patches, while posterior summaries remain available for audit. With deepseek-v4-flash, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80\% to 95\%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90\% to 100\%, and RealFin-Bench from 45\% to 65\%. We further evaluate Bayesian-Agent's native backend and optional GenericAgent, mini-swe-agent, and Claude Code backends. The results include positive, negative, saturated, and case-study settings, suggesting that agent skill evolution is best viewed as posterior-guided harness optimization rather than uncalibrated prompt accumulation. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.

Assessing and comparing player skill in online multiplayer gaming environments is essential for fair matchmaking and player engagement. Traditional ranking models like Elo and Glicko-2, designed for two-player games, are insufficient for the complexity of multi-player, asymmetric team-based matches. To address this gap, the OpenSkill library offers a suite of sophisticated, fast, and adaptable models tailored for such dynamics. Drawing from Bayesian inference methods, OpenSkill provides a more accurate representation of individual player contributions and speeds up the computation of ranks. This paper introduces the OpenSkill library, featuring a Python implementation of the Plackett-Luce model among others, highlighting its performance advantages and predictive accuracy against proprietary systems like TrueSkill. OpenSkill is a valuable tool for game developers and researchers, ensuring a responsive and fair gaming experience by efficiently adjusting player rankings based on game outcomes. The library's support for time decay and diligent documentation further aid in its practical application, making it a robust solution for the nuanced world of multiplayer ranking systems. This paper also acknowledges areas for future enhancement, such as partial play and contribution weighting, emphasizing the library's ongoing development to meet the evolving needs of online gaming communities.

Evaluation has traditionally focused on ranking candidates for a specific skill. Modern generalist models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), decidedly outpace this paradigm. Open-ended evaluation systems, where candidate models are compared on user-submitted prompts, have emerged as a popular solution. Despite their many advantages, we show that the current Elo-based rating systems can be susceptible to and even reinforce biases in data, intentional or accidental, due to their sensitivity to redundancies. To address this issue, we propose evaluation as a 3-player game, and introduce novel game-theoretic solution concepts to ensure robustness to redundancy. We show that our method leads to intuitive ratings and provide insights into the competitive landscape of LLM development.

We investigate the extent to which offline demonstration data can improve online learning. It is natural to expect some improvement, but the question is how, and by how much? We show that the degree of improvement must depend on the quality of the demonstration data. To generate portable insights, we focus on Thompson sampling (TS) applied to a multi-armed bandit as a prototypical online learning algorithm and model. The demonstration data is generated by an expert with a given competence level, a notion we introduce. We propose an informed TS algorithm that utilizes the demonstration data in a coherent way through Bayes' rule and derive a prior-dependent Bayesian regret bound. This offers insight into how pretraining can greatly improve online performance and how the degree of improvement increases with the expert's competence level. We also develop a practical, approximate informed TS algorithm through Bayesian bootstrapping and show substantial empirical regret reduction through experiments.

We study adaptive querying for learning user-dependent quantities of interest, such as responses to held-out items and psychometric indicators, within tight question budgets. Classical Bayesian design and computerized adaptive testing typically rely on restrictive parametric assumptions or expensive posterior approximations, limiting their use in heterogeneous, high-dimensional, and cold-start settings. We introduce a persona-induced latent variable model that represents a user's state through membership in a finite dictionary of AI personas, each offering response distributions produced by a large language model. This yields expressive priors with closed-form posterior updates and efficient finite-mixture predictions, enabling scalable Bayesian design for sequential item selection. Experiments on synthetic data and WorldValuesBench demonstrate that persona-based posteriors deliver accurate probabilistic predictions and an interpretable adaptive elicitation pipeline.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) show the potential of using LLMs as evaluators for assessing the quality of text generations from LLMs. However, applying LLM evaluators naively to compare or judge between different systems can lead to unreliable results due to the intrinsic win rate estimation bias of LLM evaluators. In order to mitigate this problem, we propose two calibration methods, Bayesian Win Rate Sampling (BWRS) and Bayesian Dawid-Skene, both of which leverage Bayesian inference to more accurately infer the true win rate of generative language models. We empirically validate our methods on six datasets covering story generation, summarization, and instruction following tasks. We show that both our methods are effective in improving the accuracy of win rate estimation using LLMs as evaluators, offering a promising direction for reliable automatic text quality evaluation.

Skill-augmented reinforcement learning improves language agents by storing reusable procedural knowledge acquired from past experience. Existing methods typically use strong language models to analyze trajectories, generate skills, and update a retrievable skill bank during online training. However, they rarely assess whether a newly generated skill is useful before it is stored and reused. We find that this assumption is unreliable: even skills generated by proprietary frontier LLMs exhibit highly mixed utility, with many providing little benefit or even degrading performance. Once such skills enter the bank, their effects are difficult to identify, because subsequent rollout feedback is delayed and usually reflects the combined effect of multiple retrieved skills rather than the marginal contribution of any individual skill. We propose an online reinforcement learning framework for pre-storage skill validation. The framework estimates whether a candidate skill contributes useful information beyond the skills already retrieved for the current task. It uses the standard rollout budget to form two matched groups under the same task and retrieval context: base rollouts conditioned on the currently retrieved skills, and skill-augmented rollouts conditioned on the same skills plus one candidate skill induced from the base trajectories. The reward gap between these two groups estimates the candidate skill's context-dependent marginal utility, enabling the framework to promote useful skills while filtering ineffective or harmful ones without additional rollout overhead. The framework further uses this marginal-utility signal to train the policy itself as a skill generator, reducing reliance on repeated calls to proprietary models. The learned skill-generation likelihood serves as a context-dependent score for retrieval-time reranking and outdated-skill pruning as the policy evolves.

Automated evaluation of free-form outputs from large language models (LLMs) is challenging because many distinct answers can be equally valid. A common practice is to use LLMs themselves as judges, but the theoretical properties of this approach are not yet well understood. We show that a geometric framework that represents both judges and candidates as points on a probability simplex can provide helpful insight on what is or is not identifiable using LLM judges. Our theoretical analysis uncovers a "phase transition" in ranking identifiability: for binary scoring systems, true rankings are identifiable even with weak judges under mild assumptions, while rankings become non-identifiable for three or more scoring levels even with infinite data, absent additional prior knowledge. This non-identifiability highlights how uncertainty in rankings stems from not only aleatoric uncertainty (i.e., inherent stochasticity in the data) but also epistemic uncertainty regarding which assumptions hold, an aspect that has received limited attention until now. To integrate both types of uncertainty, we use Bayesian inference to encode assumptions as priors and conduct sensitivity analysis of ranking estimates and credible intervals. Empirical evaluations across multiple benchmarks demonstrate that Bayesian inference yields more accurate rankings and substantially improves coverage rates. These results underscore the importance of taking a more holistic approach to uncertainty quantification when using LLMs as judges.

Climbing grades are used to classify a climbing route based on its perceived difficulty, and have come to play a central role in the sport of rock climbing. Recently, the first statistically rigorous method for estimating climbing grades from whole-history ascent data was described, based on the dynamic Bradley-Terry model for games between players of time-varying ability. In this paper, we implement inference under the whole-history rating model using Markov chain Monte Carlo and apply the method to a curated data set made up of climbers who climb regularly. We use these data to get an estimate of the model's fundamental scale parameter m, which defines the proportional increase in difficulty associated with an increment of grade. We show that the data conform to assumptions that the climbing grade scale is a logarithmic scale of difficulty, like decibels or stellar magnitude. We estimate that an increment in Ewbank, French and UIAA climbing grade systems corresponds to 2.1, 2.09 and 2.13 times increase in difficulty respectively, assuming a logistic model of probability of success as a function of grade. Whereas we find that the Vermin scale for bouldering (V-grade scale) corresponds to a 3.17 increase in difficulty per grade increment. In addition, we highlight potential connections between the logarithmic properties of climbing grade scales and the psychophysical laws of Weber and Fechner.

As intelligent agents become more generally-capable, i.e. able to master a wide variety of tasks, the complexity and cost of properly evaluating them rises significantly. Tasks that assess specific capabilities of the agents can be correlated and stochastic, requiring many samples for accurate comparisons, leading to added costs. In this paper, we propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for active evaluation of agents across multiple tasks, which assesses the performance of ranking algorithms as a function of number of evaluation data samples. Rather than curating, filtering, or compressing existing data sets as a preprocessing step, we propose an online framing: on every iteration, the ranking algorithm chooses the task and agents to sample scores from. Then, evaluation algorithms report a ranking of agents on each iteration and their performance is assessed with respect to the ground truth ranking over time. Several baselines are compared under different experimental contexts, with synthetic generated data and simulated online access to real evaluation data from Atari game-playing agents. We find that the classical Elo rating system -- while it suffers from well-known failure modes, in theory -- is a consistently reliable choice for efficient reduction of ranking error in practice. A recently-proposed method, Soft Condorcet Optimization, shows comparable performance to Elo on synthetic data and significantly outperforms Elo on real Atari agent evaluation. When task variation from the ground truth is high, selecting tasks based on proportional representation leads to higher rate of ranking error reduction.

The human intrinsic desire to pursue knowledge, also known as curiosity, is considered essential in the process of skill acquisition. With the aid of artificial curiosity, we could equip current techniques for control, such as Reinforcement Learning, with more natural exploration capabilities. A promising approach in this respect has consisted of using Bayesian surprise on model parameters, i.e. a metric for the difference between prior and posterior beliefs, to favour exploration. In this contribution, we propose to apply Bayesian surprise in a latent space representing the agent's current understanding of the dynamics of the system, drastically reducing the computational costs. We extensively evaluate our method by measuring the agent's performance in terms of environment exploration, for continuous tasks, and looking at the game scores achieved, for video games. Our model is computationally cheap and compares positively with current state-of-the-art methods on several problems. We also investigate the effects caused by stochasticity in the environment, which is often a failure case for curiosity-driven agents. In this regime, the results suggest that our approach is resilient to stochastic transitions.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Long-horizon reasoning in recent LLMs demands that the model switch between distinct skills inside a reasoning chain, such as first doing a math derivation, then using the result to plan a schedule. We call such problems cross-skill long-horizon tasks: multi-step tasks whose steps require different reasoning skills and depend on earlier outputs. Existing benchmarks often evaluate individual skills, lacking a principled way to measure how well a model switches between skills. We address this gap from both the evaluation and training sides. We introduce Skill Entropy, a measure of the difficulty of switching from one skill to another. We then propose Skill^2-Bench, a benchmark of cross-skill long-horizon tasks built over 558 skills across 9 verifiable and open-ended domains. Each task is assigned a task-level skill-entropy score and grouped into three difficulty levels. Evaluating 8 frontier and 4 open-source models on Skill^2-Bench reveals a skill-switching gap: accuracy decreases on higher-entropy tasks. We then turn skill entropy from a benchmark scale into a training signal. We propose Skill-Entropy RL, an RL framework where the model predicts not only the answer at each step but also the skill used to produce it. The reward combines step-level correctness with a skill-entropy reward that measures the alignment between the model-predicted skill sequence and the gold skill sequence. On Qwen3-4B-Instruct and Qwen3-1.7B, Skill-Entropy RL improves the Skill^2-Bench score from 34.4% to 68.4% and from 14.6% to 40.1%, respectively, outperforming competitive baselines. The same pipeline can be applied to off-the-shelf training data such as OpenR1-Math, indicating that skill entropy is a reusable training signal. Code available at: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/Skill-Entropy-RL

In Natural Language Processing (NLP), the Elo rating system, originally designed for ranking players in dynamic games such as chess, is increasingly being used to evaluate Large Language Models (LLMs) through "A vs B" paired comparisons. However, while popular, the system's suitability for assessing entities with constant skill levels, such as LLMs, remains relatively unexplored. We study two fundamental axioms that evaluation methods should adhere to: reliability and transitivity. We conduct extensive evaluation of Elo behaviour, illustrating that individual Elo computations exhibit volatility and delving into the impact of varying the Elo rating system's hyperparameters. We show that these axioms are not always satisfied raising questions about the reliability of current comparative evaluations of LLMs. If the current use of Elo scores is intended to substitute the costly head-to-head comparison of LLMs, it is crucial to ensure the ranking is as robust as possible. Guided by the axioms, our findings offer concrete guidelines for enhancing the reliability of LLM evaluation methods, suggesting a need for reassessment of existing comparative approaches.

LLM agents increasingly rely on reusable skills, capability packages that combine instructions, control flow, constraints, and tool calls. In most current agent systems, however, skills are still represented by text-heavy artifacts, including SKILL.md-style documents and structured records whose machine-usable evidence remains embedded largely in natural-language descriptions. This poses a challenge for skill-centered agent systems: managing skill collections and using skills to support agent both require reasoning over invocation interfaces, execution structure, and concrete side effects that are often entangled in a single textual surface. An explicit representation of skill knowledge may therefore help make these artifacts easier for machines to acquire and leverage. Drawing on Memory Organization Packets, Script Theory, and Conceptual Dependency from Schank and Abelson's classical work on linguistic knowledge representation, we introduce what is, to our knowledge, the first structured representation for agent skill artifacts that disentangles skill-level scheduling signals, scene-level execution structure, and logic-level action and resource-use evidence: the Scheduling-Structural-Logical (SSL) representation. We instantiate SSL with an LLM-based normalizer and evaluate it on a corpus of skills in two tasks, Skill Discovery and Risk Assessment, and superiorly outperform the text-only baselines: in Skill Discovery, SSL improves MRR from 0.573 to 0.707; in Risk Assessment, it improves macro F1 from 0.744 to 0.787. These findings reveal that explicit, source-grounded structure makes agent skills easier to search and review. They also suggest that SSL is best understood as a practical step toward more inspectable, reusable, and operationally actionable skill representations for agent systems, rather than as a finished standard or an end-to-end mechanism for managing and using skills.

Skill extraction and recommendation systems have been studied from recruiter, applicant, and education perspectives. While AI applications in job advertisements have received broad attention, deficiencies in the instructed skills side remain a challenge. In this work, we address the scarcity of publicly available datasets by releasing both manually annotated and synthetic datasets of skills from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy and university course pairs and publishing corresponding annotation guidelines. Specifically, we match graduate-level university courses with skills from the Systems Analysts and Management and Organization Analyst ESCO occupation groups at two granularities: course title with a skill, and course sentence with a skill. We train language models on this dataset to serve as a baseline for retrieval and recommendation systems for course-to-skill and skill-to-course matching. We evaluate the models on a portion of the annotated data. Our BERT model achieves 87% F1-score, showing that course and skill matching is a feasible task.

Skill assessment in procedural videos is crucial for the objective evaluation of human performance in settings such as manufacturing and procedural daily tasks. Current research on skill assessment has predominantly focused on sports and lacks large-scale datasets for complex procedural activities. Existing studies typically involve only a limited number of actions, focus on either pairwise assessments (e.g., A is better than B) or on binary labels (e.g., good execution vs needs improvement). In response to these shortcomings, we introduce ProSkill, the first benchmark dataset for action-level skill assessment in procedural tasks. ProSkill provides absolute skill assessment annotations, along with pairwise ones. This is enabled by a novel and scalable annotation protocol that allows for the creation of an absolute skill assessment ranking starting from pairwise assessments. This protocol leverages a Swiss Tournament scheme for efficient pairwise comparisons, which are then aggregated into consistent, continuous global scores using an ELO-based rating system. We use our dataset to benchmark the main state-of-the-art skill assessment algorithms, including both ranking-based and pairwise paradigms. The suboptimal results achieved by the current state-of-the-art highlight the challenges and thus the value of ProSkill in the context of skill assessment for procedural videos. All data and code are available at https://fpv-iplab.github.io/ProSkill/

A modular design encourages neural models to disentangle and recombine different facets of knowledge to generalise more systematically to new tasks. In this work, we assume that each task is associated with a subset of latent discrete skills from a (potentially small) inventory. In turn, skills correspond to parameter-efficient (sparse / low-rank) model parameterisations. By jointly learning these and a task-skill allocation matrix, the network for each task is instantiated as the average of the parameters of active skills. To favour non-trivial soft partitions of skills across tasks, we experiment with a series of inductive biases, such as an Indian Buffet Process prior and a two-speed learning rate. We evaluate our latent-skill model on two main settings: 1) multitask reinforcement learning for grounded instruction following on 8 levels of the BabyAI platform; and 2) few-shot adaptation of pre-trained text-to-text generative models on CrossFit, a benchmark comprising 160 NLP tasks. We find that the modular design of a network significantly increases sample efficiency in reinforcement learning and few-shot generalisation in supervised learning, compared to baselines with fully shared, task-specific, or conditionally generated parameters where knowledge is entangled across tasks. In addition, we show how discrete skills help interpretability, as they yield an explicit hierarchy of tasks.

A natural strategy for continual learning is to weigh a Bayesian ensemble of fixed functions. This suggests that if a (single) neural network could be interpreted as an ensemble, one could design effective algorithms that learn without forgetting. To realize this possibility, we observe that a neural network classifier with N parameters can be interpreted as a weighted ensemble of N classifiers, and that in the lazy regime limit these classifiers are fixed throughout learning. We call these classifiers the neural tangent experts and show they output valid probability distributions over the labels. We then derive the likelihood and posterior probability of each expert given past data. Surprisingly, the posterior updates for these experts are equivalent to a scaled and projected form of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) over the network weights. Away from the lazy regime, networks can be seen as ensembles of adaptive experts which improve over time. These results offer a new interpretation of neural networks as Bayesian ensembles of experts, providing a principled framework for understanding and mitigating catastrophic forgetting in continual learning settings.

Agent skills are the de facto mechanism for extending LLM agents with reusable guidance. A skill can shape the agent's task execution, including planning, tool use, problem-solving, and validation. Prior work reported mixed results of agent skills: some skills improve task success rates, while others have no effect, increase token use and execution time, and even reduce success rates. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of skill-induced agent failures by attributing task failures and cost regressions to specific loaded skills. We introduce a differential analysis framework that attributes a failure or regression to a skill by comparing a target skill-guided run against a no-skill or semantically matched skill reference run that solves the same task, or solves it more cheaply. We instantiate this framework on SkillsBench and SWE-Skills-Bench, yielding 307 skill-induced failures, including 125 functional failures and 182 efficiency regressions. We also build SkillTriage, a taxonomy-guided attribution tool that normalizes paired cases, extracts differential evidence, and produces triage reports. Our major findings include: (1) Skill induced functional failures are rarely caused by obviously irrelevant skills; instead, seemingly relevant skills often make the agent incorrectly implement or omit task-required implementation elements. (2) Skill-induced efficiency regressions are not explained by prompt length alone. (3) The largest sources within Excessive Procedure are excessive verification and heavy implementation pipelines, contributing 67 and 30 cases, respectively. This shows that skills often turn validation checklists and construction recipes into mandatory work. Based on our findings, we propose research topics and tooling improvements for safer and more cost-aware skill reuse.

In arena-style evaluation of large language models (LLMs), two LLMs respond to a user query, and the user chooses the winning response or deems the "battle" a draw, resulting in an adjustment to the ratings of both models. The prevailing approach for modeling these rating dynamics is to view battles as two-player game matches, as in chess, and apply the Elo rating system and its derivatives. In this paper, we critically examine this paradigm. Specifically, we question whether a draw genuinely means that the two models are equal and hence whether their ratings should be equalized. Instead, we conjecture that draws are more indicative of query difficulty: if the query is too easy, then both models are more likely to succeed equally. On three real-world arena datasets, we show that ignoring rating updates for draws yields a 1-3% relative increase in battle outcome prediction accuracy (which includes draws) for all four rating systems studied. Further analyses suggest that draws occur more for queries rated as very easy and those as highly objective, with risk ratios of 1.37 and 1.35, respectively. We recommend future rating systems to reconsider existing draw semantics and to account for query properties in rating updates.

Bayesian neural learning feature a rigorous approach to estimation and uncertainty quantification via the posterior distribution of weights that represent knowledge of the neural network. This not only provides point estimates of optimal set of weights but also the ability to quantify uncertainty in decision making using the posterior distribution. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques are typically used to obtain sample-based estimates of the posterior distribution. However, these techniques face challenges in convergence and scalability, particularly in settings with large datasets and network architectures. This paper address these challenges in two ways. First, parallel tempering is used used to explore multiple modes of the posterior distribution and implemented in multi-core computing architecture. Second, we make within-chain sampling schemes more efficient by using Langevin gradient information in forming Metropolis-Hastings proposal distributions. We demonstrate the techniques using time series prediction and pattern classification applications. The results show that the method not only improves the computational time, but provides better prediction or decision making capabilities when compared to related methods.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Do larger and more capable language models learn to update their "beliefs" about propositions more consistently with Bayes' theorem when presented with evidence in-context? To test this, we formulate a Bayesian Coherence Coefficient (BCC) metric and generate a dataset with which to measure the BCC. We measure BCC for multiple pre-trained-only language models across five model families, comparing against the number of model parameters, the amount of training data, and model scores on common benchmarks. Our results provide evidence for our hypothesis that larger and more capable pre-trained language models assign credences that are more coherent with Bayes' theorem. These results have important implications for our understanding and governance of LLMs.

Skill usage has become a core component of modern agent systems and can substantially improve agents' ability to complete complex tasks. In real-world settings, where agents must monitor and interact with numerous personal applications, web browsers, and other environment interfaces, skill libraries can scale to thousands of reusable skills. Scaling to larger skill sets introduces two key challenges. First, loading the full skill set saturates the context window, driving up token costs, hallucination, and latency. In this paper, we present Graph of Skills (GoS), an inference-time structural retrieval layer for large skill libraries. GoS constructs an executable skill graph offline from skill packages, then at inference time retrieves a bounded, dependency-aware skill bundle through hybrid semantic-lexical seeding, reverse-weighted Personalized PageRank, and context-budgeted hydration. On SkillsBench and ALFWorld, GoS improves average reward by 43.6% over the vanilla full skill-loading baseline while reducing input tokens by 37.8%, and generalizes across three model families: Claude Sonnet, GPT-5.2 Codex, and MiniMax. Additional ablation studies across skill libraries ranging from 200 to 2,000 skills further demonstrate that GoS consistently outperforms both vanilla skills loading and simple vector retrieval in balancing reward, token efficiency, and runtime.

Egocentric perception on smart glasses could transform how we learn new skills in the physical world, but automatic skill assessment remains a fundamental technical challenge. We introduce SkillSight for power-efficient skill assessment from first-person data. Central to our approach is the hypothesis that skill level is evident not only in how a person performs an activity (video), but also in how they direct their attention when doing so (gaze). Our two-stage framework first learns to jointly model gaze and egocentric video when predicting skill level, then distills a gaze-only student model. At inference, the student model requires only gaze input, drastically reducing power consumption by eliminating continuous video processing. Experiments on three datasets spanning cooking, music, and sports establish, for the first time, the valuable role of gaze in skill understanding across diverse real-world settings. Our SkillSight teacher model achieves state-of-the-art performance, while our gaze-only student variant maintains high accuracy using 73x less power than competing methods. These results pave the way for in-the-wild AI-supported skill learning.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

This paper develops a novel rating-based reinforcement learning approach that uses human ratings to obtain human guidance in reinforcement learning. Different from the existing preference-based and ranking-based reinforcement learning paradigms, based on human relative preferences over sample pairs, the proposed rating-based reinforcement learning approach is based on human evaluation of individual trajectories without relative comparisons between sample pairs. The rating-based reinforcement learning approach builds on a new prediction model for human ratings and a novel multi-class loss function. We conduct several experimental studies based on synthetic ratings and real human ratings to evaluate the effectiveness and benefits of the new rating-based reinforcement learning approach.

Existing skill generation methods largely rely on heuristics or pipeline-style consolidation, which must be specially designed for different evidence sources. In contrast, learning-based approaches offer a more unified way to model skill generation across heterogeneous sources. However, learning-based skill generation remains challenging because skills lack a natural supervision signal based on relevance or correctness; their value can largely be determined only by whether they improve the behavior of the agent on downstream tasks. To address this challenge, we propose Skill-α, a reinforcement learning method for progressively generating high-quality agent skills. Specifically, we formulate skill generation as a sequential editing process that decomposes skill construction into individually evaluable edits, and introduce a novel rollback reward that evaluates each edit by comparing downstream execution under the original and edited skills on an anchored query. Extensive experiments show that Skill-α generates more effective skills than methods based on heuristics or pipelines in both document-to-skill and experience-to-skill settings. Under the main GPT-4o worker, Skill-α improves average downstream success rates over the strongest skill-generation baseline by 3.3 points on CL-Bench and 6.7 points on tau2-bench. Further ablations validate the importance of rollback reward and progressive generation.

Skills, i.e., structured workflow instructions distilled for large language models (LLMs), are becoming an increasingly important mechanism for improving agent performance on real-world downstream tasks. However, as the open-source skill ecosystem rapidly expands, it remains unclear how different models and agent frameworks interact with skills, how to evaluate skill quality, and how users should select skills under practical cost-performance trade-offs. In this paper, we present OpenSkillEval, an automatic evaluation framework for both skill-augmented agent systems and the skills themselves. Instead of relying on static benchmarks, OpenSkillEval automatically constructs realistic task instances from evolving real-world artifacts across five categories of downstream applications: presentation generation, front-end web design, poster generation, data visualization, and report generation. It further collects and organizes community-contributed skills for controlled comparison under unified task settings. Using more than 600 dynamically generated task instances and 30 open-source skills, we conduct a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art models and agent frameworks. Our results show that skill availability does not guarantee effective skill usage, that the benefit of skill augmentation depends strongly on both the underlying model and the agent framework, and that many publicly popular skills do not consistently outperform base agents without skills. These findings highlight the need for dynamic, task-grounded evaluation and provide practical insights into the design, selection, and deployment of skills for LLM agents. Additional cases and benchmark resources are available on the project website: https://yingjiahao14.github.io/OpenSkillEval-Web/.

Recent LLM agents benefit from skills for solving complex tasks. Skills encapsulate modular packages of procedural knowledge and instructions for performing specialized tasks, such as setting up a sandboxed environment, running a test suite, or refactoring a function across multiple files. As skill libraries grow and become reusable across tasks and domains, selecting an appropriate skill composition has emerged as a central bottleneck. Existing approaches fall into two categories. One exposes the agent's reasoning to the entire skill collection; the other performs skill retrieval via embeddings or LLM-based rerankers. Both provide useful insights; however, they miss the structural nature of skill composition, which is a joint decision over which skills, how many, and in what order -- three dimensions that cannot be decoupled. We formalize this as structured skill composition: given a task and a skill library, predict an executable skill plan that jointly specifies the activated subset, count, and execution order. We propose SkillComposer, which instantiates structured skill composition as task-conditioned skill sequence prediction. SkillComposer uses a constrained autoregressive decoder over skill identifiers, so subset, count, and order emerge jointly from a single decoding pass, and dependencies between successive skills are captured naturally. We build a training set of task-composition pairs from a real, human-curated skill library. We then evaluate SkillComposer along two axes: composition quality on a held-out test set, and downstream task success on SkillsBench across two production-grade coding agents. On GPT-5.2-Codex, Gemini-3-Pro-Preview, SkillComposer raises the pass rate by +23.1, +18.2pp over the no-skill baseline, surpassing top-3 retrieval and matching the gold-skill retrieval upper bound at lower prompt-token cost.

Language models (LMs) should provide reliable confidence estimates to help users detect mistakes in their outputs and defer to human experts when necessary. Asking a language model to assess its confidence ("Score your confidence from 0-1.") is a natural way of evaluating its uncertainty. However, models struggle to provide absolute assessments of confidence (i.e. judging confidence in answering a question independent of other questions) and the coarse-grained scores they produce are not useful for evaluating the correctness of their answers. We propose relative confidence estimation, where we match up questions against each other and ask the model to make relative judgments of confidence ("Which question are you more confident in answering correctly?"). Treating each question as a "player" in a series of matchups against other questions and the model's preferences as match outcomes, we can use rank aggregation methods like Elo rating and Bradley-Terry to translate the model's confidence preferences into confidence scores. We evaluate relative confidence estimation against absolute confidence estimation and self-consistency confidence methods on five state-of-the-art LMs -- GPT-4, GPT-4o, Gemini 1.5 Pro, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and Llama 3.1 405B -- across 14 challenging STEM, social science, and commonsense reasoning question answering tasks. Our results demonstrate that relative confidence estimation consistently provides more reliable confidence scores than absolute confidence estimation, with average gains of 3.5% in selective classification AUC over direct absolute confidence estimation methods and 1.7% over self-consistency approaches across all models and datasets.

To make deliberate progress towards more intelligent and more human-like artificial systems, we need to be following an appropriate feedback signal: we need to be able to define and evaluate intelligence in a way that enables comparisons between two systems, as well as comparisons with humans. Over the past hundred years, there has been an abundance of attempts to define and measure intelligence, across both the fields of psychology and AI. We summarize and critically assess these definitions and evaluation approaches, while making apparent the two historical conceptions of intelligence that have implicitly guided them. We note that in practice, the contemporary AI community still gravitates towards benchmarking intelligence by comparing the skill exhibited by AIs and humans at specific tasks such as board games and video games. We argue that solely measuring skill at any given task falls short of measuring intelligence, because skill is heavily modulated by prior knowledge and experience: unlimited priors or unlimited training data allow experimenters to "buy" arbitrary levels of skills for a system, in a way that masks the system's own generalization power. We then articulate a new formal definition of intelligence based on Algorithmic Information Theory, describing intelligence as skill-acquisition efficiency and highlighting the concepts of scope, generalization difficulty, priors, and experience. Using this definition, we propose a set of guidelines for what a general AI benchmark should look like. Finally, we present a benchmark closely following these guidelines, the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), built upon an explicit set of priors designed to be as close as possible to innate human priors. We argue that ARC can be used to measure a human-like form of general fluid intelligence and that it enables fair general intelligence comparisons between AI systems and humans.

Reward models (RMs) provide critical feedback signals for LLM post-training, notably in reinforced fine-tuning (RFT) and reinforcement learning (RL) pipelines. However, current reward evaluation relies on heterogeneous criteria such as rule-based verifiers, ground-truth references, procedural checklists, and complex rubrics, where a unified mechanism to integrate all types of evidence remains unexplored. To this end, we propose Skill Reward Model (Skill-RM), a unified framework that reformulates reward modeling as the execution of a reusable Reward-Evaluation Skill. By treating reward computation as a structured agentic task, Skill-RM provides a consistent interface to orchestrate heterogeneous resources, dynamically selecting and aggregating evidence tailored to the specific requirements of each input. This approach enables the reward model to move beyond static evaluation, ensuring consistency and transparency across diverse tasks. Extensive experiments on reward benchmarks and downstream applications, including best-of-N selection and reinforcement learning, demonstrate that Skill-RM consistently outperforms traditional judge baselines. Our findings suggest that Skill-RM not only provides a unified solution for reward modeling but also achieves superior performance through the strategic and dynamic orchestration of evidence. The code is at https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/Skill-RM.

As large language models (LLMs) evolve into agentic problem solvers, they increasingly rely on external, reusable skills to handle tasks beyond their native parametric capabilities. In existing agent systems, the dominant strategy for incorporating skills is to explicitly enumerate available skills within the context window. However, this strategy fails to scale: as skill corpora expand, context budgets are consumed rapidly, and the agent becomes markedly less accurate in identifying the right skill. To this end, this paper formulates Skill Retrieval Augmentation (SRA), a new paradigm in which agents dynamically retrieve, incorporate, and apply relevant skills from large external skill corpora on demand. To make this problem measurable, we construct a large-scale skill corpus and introduce SRA-Bench, the first benchmark for decomposed evaluation of the full SRA pipeline, covering skill retrieval, skill incorporation, and end-task execution. SRA-Bench contains 5,400 capability-intensive test instances and 636 manually constructed gold skills, which are mixed with web-collected distractor skills to form a large-scale corpus of 26,262 skills. Extensive experiments show that retrieval-based skill augmentation can substantially improve agent performance, validating the promise of the paradigm. At the same time, we uncover a fundamental gap in skill incorporation: current LLM agents tend to load skills at similar rates, regardless of whether a gold skill is retrieved or whether the task actually requires external capabilities. This shows that the bottleneck in skill augmentation lies not only in retrieval but also in the base model's ability to determine which skill to load and when external loading is actually needed. These findings position SRA as a distinct research problem and establish a foundation for the scalable augmentation of capabilities in future agent systems.

As LLM agents are increasingly deployed with large libraries of reusable skills, selecting the right skill for a user request has become a critical systems challenge. In small libraries, users may invoke skills explicitly by name, but this assumption breaks down as skill ecosystems grow under tight context and latency budgets. Despite its practical importance, skill retrieval remains underexplored, with limited benchmarks and little understanding of retrieval behavior on realistic skill libraries. To address this gap, we introduce SkillRet, a large-scale benchmark for skill retrieval in LLM agents. SkillRet contains 17,810 public agent skills, organized with structured semantic tags and a two-level taxonomy spanning 6 major categories and 18 sub-categories. It provides 63,259 training samples and 4,997 evaluation queries with disjoint skill pools, enabling both benchmarking and retrieval-oriented training. Across a diverse set of retrievers, we find that skill retrieval remains far from solved: off-the-shelf models struggle on realistic large-scale skill libraries, and prior skill-retrieval models still leave substantial headroom. Task-specific fine-tuning on SkillRet substantially improves performance, improving NDCG@10 by +13.1 points over the strongest prior retriever and by +16.9 points over the strongest off-the-shelf retriever. Our analysis further suggests that these gains arise because fine-tuned models better focus on the small skill-relevant signals within long and noisy queries. These results establish SkillRet as a strong benchmark and foundation for future research on retrieval in large-scale agent systems.

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually over-parameterized space. This paper investigates a new line of Bayesian deep learning by performing Bayesian inference on network structure. Instead of building structure from scratch inefficiently, we draw inspirations from neural architecture search to represent the network structure. We then develop an efficient stochastic variational inference approach which unifies the learning of both network structure and weights. Empirically, our method exhibits competitive predictive performance while preserving the benefits of Bayesian principles across challenging scenarios. We also provide convincing experimental justification for our modeling choice.

The performance of many machine learning models depends on their hyper-parameter settings. Bayesian Optimization has become a successful tool for hyper-parameter optimization of machine learning algorithms, which aims to identify optimal hyper-parameters during an iterative sequential process. However, most of the Bayesian Optimization algorithms are designed to select models for effectiveness only and ignore the important issue of model training efficiency. Given that both model effectiveness and training time are important for real-world applications, models selected for effectiveness may not meet the strict training time requirements necessary to deploy in a production environment. In this work, we present a unified Bayesian Optimization framework for jointly optimizing models for both prediction effectiveness and training efficiency. We propose an objective that captures the tradeoff between these two metrics and demonstrate how we can jointly optimize them in a principled Bayesian Optimization framework. Experiments on model selection for recommendation tasks indicate models selected this way significantly improves model training efficiency while maintaining strong effectiveness as compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian Optimization algorithms.

Large language model agents increasingly store reusable procedures outside the model. These reusable procedures are often called skills: they may be code functions, natural-language instructions, SKILL.md packages, workflow graphs, or learned adapters that a future agent can retrieve and invoke. This taxonomy-driven survey asks how such skill libraries change over time. Across a 124-paper 2023--2026 audit set, we synthesize dynamic skill systems as lifecycle-managed, verified, evolving artifact stores: agents collect evidence from interaction, propose skill updates, verify and admit candidates, organize them for retrieval and composition, repair or prune stale entries, and govern sharing through provenance and rollback. We organize the literature around three survey tools. First, a six-sense taxonomy distinguishes the structurally different artifacts called ``skills'' in current papers. Second, an eight-stage lifecycle architecture identifies the recurring design decisions behind evidence acquisition, proposal, verification/admission, storage, retrieval/composition, maintenance, distillation/portability, and governance. Third, a lightweight skill-record schema and ten-operator vocabulary provide common terms for comparing library updates without elevating them into a separate method contribution. Using this structure, we synthesize evidence-graded patterns with explicit caveats: admission and repair are repeatedly important, verifier quality materially affects skill-aware RL, flat retrieval can degrade as libraries grow, and current benchmarks still under-report library trajectories, usage--utility gaps, and safety surfaces. We close with concrete reporting standards and open problems for evaluating dynamic skills as changing libraries rather than static prompt or tool collections.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

We consider the problem of recommending relevant content to users of an internet platform in the form of lists of items, called slates. We introduce a variational Bayesian Recurrent Neural Net recommender system that acts on time series of interactions between the internet platform and the user, and which scales to real world industrial situations. The recommender system is tested both online on real users, and on an offline dataset collected from a Norwegian web-based marketplace, FINN.no, that is made public for research. This is one of the first publicly available datasets which includes all the slates that are presented to users as well as which items (if any) in the slates were clicked on. Such a data set allows us to move beyond the common assumption that implicitly assumes that users are considering all possible items at each interaction. Instead we build our likelihood using the items that are actually in the slate, and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of both approaches theoretically and in experiments. We also introduce a hierarchical prior for the item parameters based on group memberships. Both item parameters and user preferences are learned probabilistically. Furthermore, we combine our model with bandit strategies to ensure learning, and introduce `in-slate Thompson Sampling' which makes use of the slates to maximise explorative opportunities. We show experimentally that explorative recommender strategies perform on par or above their greedy counterparts. Even without making use of exploration to learn more effectively, click rates increase simply because of improved diversity in the recommended slates.

Skills have emerged as a practical and effective approach for enhancing LLM agents at inference time through structured packages of knowledge. However, existing evaluations largely measure whether skills improve aggregated task success, leaving a more fundamental question underexplored: \textbf{When do skills help, why do they work, and where do they fail?} Through controlled experiments across various benchmarks, agent harnesses and LLMs, we isolate the effects of representation, outcome annotation, retrieval difficulty, and cross-framework robustness of skills. To further answer this question, we design a contrastive study that combines controlled quantitative experiments with paired trajectory analysis. We normalize 8,135 trial records from controlled experiments and retain 238 valid unique labels from 240 open-coded records. We consolidate these observations into a taxonomy of three high-level categories and twelve skill-use modes: skills work when noisy trajectories become procedural anchors that stabilize execution. Skills improve over Workflow Memory by 6.06 points in matched comparisons. Procedural anchoring accounts for 65.7\% of skill cases, versus 4.5\% for explicit knowledge injection, showing that skills stabilize action rather than inject missing facts. Retrieval is a separate bottleneck: as pools grow from 5 to 100, actual-use precision falls from 29.6\% to 3.3\%. Confusable distractors impair offline identification, yet downstream success remains stable; exact ground-truth invocation is neither sufficient nor necessary. Skills fail under brittle assumptions, incompatible contexts, or insufficient adaptation. These findings move evaluation beyond aggregate success rates and guide reliable self-evolving agents.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Agent Skills augment large language model (LLM) agents with procedural knowledge at inference time, but current benchmarks rarely distinguish what a Skill says from how it is organized. We study this distinction through Progressive Disclosure, where a concise root file points agents to supporting resources on demand, and compare it with a normalized flat baseline. We present SkillJuror, a framework for evaluating Skill writing paradigms through semantically controlled variants, matched multi-trial evaluations, and trajectory evidence while holding task knowledge fixed. In an 82-task SkillsBench study, Progressive Disclosure changes runtime behavior before aggregate outcomes: distinct Skill resources touched per trajectory rise from 1.18 to 3.85, and effective uptake events rise from 1.33 to 3.92. It also yields 17 additional verifier-passing trials out of 410 matched trials (+4.1%) over the normalized flat baseline. The benefit is task-dependent. Progressive Disclosure helps when supporting resources guide implementation, checking, or repair, but is weaker when success hinges on exact output conventions, numerical thresholds, or long artifact-generation pipelines. These results show that Skill organization is not mere presentation: it can change how agents search and apply procedural knowledge, while outcome gains depend on whether the exposed resources are actionable for the task. Code is available at https://github.com/zhiyuchen-ai/skill-juror.

In this work, we present a modular and interpretable framework that uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate candidate assessment in recruitment. The system integrates diverse sources, including job descriptions, CVs, interview transcripts, and HR feedback; to generate structured evaluation reports that mirror expert judgment. Unlike traditional ATS tools that rely on keyword matching or shallow scoring, our approach employs role-specific, LLM-generated rubrics and a multi-agent architecture to perform fine-grained, criteria-driven evaluations. The framework outputs detailed assessment reports, candidate comparisons, and ranked recommendations that are transparent, auditable, and suitable for real-world hiring workflows. Beyond rubric-based analysis, we introduce an LLM-Driven Active Listwise Tournament mechanism for candidate ranking. Instead of noisy pairwise comparisons or inconsistent independent scoring, the LLM ranks small candidate subsets (mini-tournaments), and these listwise permutations are aggregated using a Plackett-Luce model. An active-learning loop selects the most informative subsets, producing globally coherent and sample-efficient rankings. This adaptation of listwise LLM preference modeling (previously explored in financial asset ranking) provides a principled and highly interpretable methodology for large-scale candidate ranking in talent acquisition.

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

Current rating systems update ratings incrementally and may not always accurately reflect a player's true strength at all times, especially for rapidly improving players or very rusty players. To overcome this, we explore a method to estimate player ratings directly from game moves and clock times. We compiled a benchmark dataset from Lichess, encompassing various time controls and including move sequences and clock times. Our model architecture comprises a CNN to learn positional features, which are then integrated with clock-time data into a bidirectional LSTM, predicting player ratings after each move. The model achieved an MAE of 182 rating points in the test data. Additionally, we applied our model to the 2024 IEEE Big Data Cup Chess Puzzle Difficulty Competition dataset, predicted puzzle ratings and achieved competitive results. This model is the first to use no hand-crafted features to estimate chess ratings and also the first to output a rating prediction for each move. Our method highlights the potential of using move-based rating estimation for enhancing rating systems and potentially other applications such as cheating detection.

Expert-written natural language skills can improve tool-using agents, yet agent-authored skills perform 8-11 points worse than using no skill. This gap suggests that following procedural guidance and improving it from execution evidence are distinct capabilities. Inference time loops can repair skills but do not improve the model that writes the next one. We study how to organize execution experience from intermediate skills into training states for an optimizer. We introduce WER (Write, Execute, and Refine), a multi-phase framework that trains a Skill Optimizer outside a frozen executor. The optimizer proposes skills, a frozen agent executes each repeatedly, and a programmatic verifier scores the outcomes. The scores provide relative credit and select mixed-outcome records. Matched successful and failed trajectories from these records form the next phase's refinement states, so the optimizer learns from the consequences of its earlier outputs. On BFCL v4 multi-turn and tau2-bench, WER improves average Pass@1 over the no-skill baseline by 7.80 and 3.85 points, respectively. Under an identical refinement workflow, it outperforms the same backbone without optimizer training by 9.35 and 10.29 points. The trained 4B optimizer reaches 76.63 percent on BFCL v4, outperforming all evaluated off-the-shelf general-purpose models used as skill optimizers on average.

Autonomous language-model agents increasingly rely on installable skills and tools to complete user tasks. Static skill auditing can expose capability surface before deployment, but it cannot determine whether a particular invocation is unsafe under the current user request and runtime context. We therefore study skill invocation auditing as a continuous-risk estimation problem: given a user request, candidate skill, and runtime context, predict a score that supports ranking and triage before a hard intervention is applied. We introduce STARS, which combines a static capability prior, a request-conditioned invocation risk model, and a calibrated risk-fusion policy. To evaluate this setting, we construct SIA-Bench, a benchmark of 3,000 invocation records with group-safe splits, lineage metadata, runtime context, canonical action labels, and derived continuous-risk targets. On a held-out split of indirect prompt injection attacks, calibrated fusion reaches 0.439 high-risk AUPRC, improving over 0.405 for the contextual scorer and 0.380 for the strongest static baseline, while the contextual scorer remains better calibrated with 0.289 expected calibration error. On the locked in-distribution test split, gains are smaller and static priors remain useful. The resulting claim is therefore narrower: request-conditioned auditing is most valuable as an invocation-time risk-scoring and triage layer rather than as a replacement for static screening. Code is available at https://github.com/123zgj123/STARS.

Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across 20 reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to N=80 trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard Bayes_{U}@80 (mean Kendall's τ_b = 0.93--0.95), and 19--34 methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach τ_b approx 0.86. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior (Bayes_{R_0}@N) reduces variance at N=1 by 16--52%, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio.

Agent skills represent a standardized format for packaging procedural knowledge and domain expertise, serving within agent harness systems as an essential mechanism to continually constrain a language model's behavior space for repeatable, high-quality task execution. However, because strong closed-source models entail high inference costs, current popular agent harnesses, such as Codex and OpenClaw, remain prohibitively expensive when deploying these skills to accomplish real-world tasks. The rapid capability enhancement of open-source models deployable on consumer-grade GPUs presents a compelling opportunity to drastically reduce these costs by leveraging skill-based behavioral constraints. Nevertheless, automatically generating effective skills tailored specifically for such compact models remains a significant practical challenge. To address this, we propose SKILLER, a natural-language-driven reinforcement learning framework designed to automatically generate executor-specific skills for small models, which employs a strong model as the actor and critic, treats the small-model agent system as the environment, and propagates all reinforcement learning signals entirely via natural language. Extensive experimental evaluations across five relevant benchmarks using Qwen3.5-9B and Qwen3.5-4B demonstrate that SKILLER outperforms three open-source and one closed-source skill generation or evolution methods, achieving absolute gains ranging from 4.3 to 20.4 percentage points for the 9B model and 1.8 to 13.3 points for the 4B model, while remarkably matching the performance of strong closed-source models on single-skill tasks in SkillsBench. The project is available at https://github.com/DANG-ai/SKILLER.

We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the importance of proper interpretation as it pertains to inference about latent variables. We consider a recently-proposed method "distributional evidence" as well as revisit two older methods: Jeffrey's rule and virtual evidence. We devise guidelines on how to account for uncertain evidence and we provide new insights, particularly regarding consistency. To showcase the impact of different interpretations of the same uncertain evidence, we carry out experiments in which one interpretation is defined as "correct." We then compare inference results from each different interpretation illustrating the importance of careful consideration of uncertain evidence.

Posterior sampling allows the exploitation of prior knowledge of the environment's transition dynamics to improve the sample efficiency of reinforcement learning. The prior is typically specified as a class of parametric distributions, a task that can be cumbersome in practice, often resulting in the choice of uninformative priors. In this work, we propose a novel posterior sampling approach in which the prior is given as a (partial) causal graph over the environment's variables. The latter is often more natural to design, such as listing known causal dependencies between biometric features in a medical treatment study. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian procedure, called C-PSRL, simultaneously learning the full causal graph at the higher level and the parameters of the resulting factored dynamics at the lower level. For this procedure, we provide an analysis of its Bayesian regret, which explicitly connects the regret rate with the degree of prior knowledge. Our numerical evaluation conducted in illustrative domains confirms that C-PSRL strongly improves the efficiency of posterior sampling with an uninformative prior while performing close to posterior sampling with the full causal graph.

Despite their widespread applications, Large Language Models (LLMs) often struggle to express uncertainty, posing a challenge for reliable deployment in high stakes and safety critical domains like clinical diagnostics. Existing standard baseline methods such as model logits and elicited probabilities produce overconfident and poorly calibrated estimates. In this work, we propose Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a likelihood-free Bayesian inference, based approach that treats LLMs as a stochastic simulator to infer posterior distributions over predictive probabilities. We evaluate our ABC approach on two clinically relevant benchmarks: a synthetic oral lesion diagnosis dataset and the publicly available GretelAI symptom-to-diagnosis dataset. Compared to standard baselines, our approach improves accuracy by up to 46.9\%, reduces Brier scores by 74.4\%, and enhances calibration as measured by Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and predictive entropy.

Skills are a natural unit for describing what a language model can do and how its behavior can be changed. However, existing characterizations rely on human-written taxonomies, textual descriptions, or manual profiling pipelines--all external hypotheses about what matters that need not align with the model's internal representations. We argue that when the goal is to intervene on model behavior, skill characterization should be *model-native*: grounded in the model's own representations rather than imposed through external ontologies. We instantiate this view by recovering a compact orthogonal basis from sequence-level activations. The resulting basis is semantically interpretable but need not correspond to any predefined human ontology; instead, it captures axes of behavioral variation that the model itself organizes around. We validate this characterization on reasoning post-training, using the recovered basis for both SFT data selection and inference-time steering. We develop lightweight proxy interventions to identify which directions are most useful for a given model. Across Llama3-8B and Qwen2.5-3B, selecting data along those directions improves Pass@1 by up to 20% on MATH and 41% on AMC, outperforming data selection based on human-characterized skills. Because the basis lives in activation space, the same directions also serve as steering vectors at inference time, improving Pass@8 by up to 4.8% on MATH--an intervention that human-characterized skills cannot support. We further validate the characterization on safety alignment, where selecting adversarial training data for model-native skill coverage rather than textual diversity yields more sample-efficient learning. These results suggest that recovering skills from the model's own representations, rather than imposing them externally, provides a more effective foundation for intervening on model behavior. Codes are open-sourced.

Agent Skills are structured packages of procedural knowledge that augment LLM agents at inference time. Despite rapid adoption, there is no standard way to measure whether they actually help. We present SkillsBench, a benchmark of 86 tasks across 11 domains paired with curated Skills and deterministic verifiers. Each task is evaluated under three conditions: no Skills, curated Skills, and self-generated Skills. We test 7 agent-model configurations over 7,308 trajectories. Curated Skills raise average pass rate by 16.2 percentage points(pp), but effects vary widely by domain (+4.5pp for Software Engineering to +51.9pp for Healthcare) and 16 of 84 tasks show negative deltas. Self-generated Skills provide no benefit on average, showing that models cannot reliably author the procedural knowledge they benefit from consuming. Focused Skills with 2--3 modules outperform comprehensive documentation, and smaller models with Skills can match larger models without them.

Agent skills are procedural artifacts that enable LLM agents to execute workflows, verify constraints, and recover from failures. Existing self-evolving methods refine skills using accumulated trajectories. However, they struggle in cold-start settings, where only an initial, imperfect skill is available. Consequently, skill construction defaults to expert authoring or one-shot LLM generation. Expert-authored skills are costly and may not align with how LLM agents actually execute tasks, while one-shot generated skills can be syntactically well formed yet behaviorally weak. To bridge this gap, we propose SkillRevise, an execution-grounded framework designed to iteratively refine these initial skills. SkillRevise diagnoses skill defects from execution evidence, retrieves relevant repair principles from a general memory, and applies execution-anchored edits. By re-executing candidates and measuring empirical utility, it systematically retains the optimal skill version. Evaluated across three benchmarks and five LLMs, SkillRevise substantially outperforms one-shot baselines, improving the base agent's success rate on SkillsBench from 36.05% to 61.63%. Furthermore, the revised skills exhibit strong cross-model transferability, capturing generalized procedural knowledge over model-specific artifacts.

Recently, partial Bayesian neural networks (pBNNs), which only consider a subset of the parameters to be stochastic, were shown to perform competitively with full Bayesian neural networks. However, pBNNs are often multi-modal in the latent-variable space and thus challenging to approximate with parametric models. To address this problem, we propose an efficient sampling-based training strategy, wherein the training of a pBNN is formulated as simulating a Feynman--Kac model. We then describe variations of sequential Monte Carlo samplers that allow us to simultaneously estimate the parameters and the latent posterior distribution of this model at a tractable computational cost. We show on various synthetic and real-world datasets that our proposed training scheme outperforms the state of the art in terms of predictive performance.

Bayesian optimization (BO) has contributed greatly to improving model performance by suggesting promising hyperparameter configurations iteratively based on observations from multiple training trials. However, only partial knowledge (i.e., the measured performances of trained models and their hyperparameter configurations) from previous trials is transferred. On the other hand, Self-Distillation (SD) only transfers partial knowledge learned by the task model itself. To fully leverage the various knowledge gained from all training trials, we propose the BOSS framework, which combines BO and SD. BOSS suggests promising hyperparameter configurations through BO and carefully selects pre-trained models from previous trials for SD, which are otherwise abandoned in the conventional BO process. BOSS achieves significantly better performance than both BO and SD in a wide range of tasks including general image classification, learning with noisy labels, semi-supervised learning, and medical image analysis tasks.

Agent skills can remarkably improve task success rates by using human-written procedural documents, but their quality is difficult to assess without environment-grounded verification. Existing skill generation methods heavily rely on preference logs rather than direct environment interaction, often yielding negligible or even degraded gains. We identify that it is a fundamental timing bottleneck: robust skills should be posterior-based, distilled from empirical environment interaction rather than prior plans. In this study, we introduce the Posterior Distillation Index (PDI), a trajectory-level metric that quantifies how well a distilled skill is grounded in the task-environment evidence. To operationalize PDI, we present SPARK (Structured Pipelines for Autonomous Runnable tasKs and sKill generation) for preserving task execution evidence towards full trajectory-level analysis. SPARK generates environment-verified trajectories used to compute PDI, and it applies PDI as an online diagnostic and intervention signal to ensure posterior skill formation. Across 86 runnable tasks, SPARK-generated skills consistently surpass no-skill baselines and outperform human-written skills on student models (inference cost up to 1,000x cheaper than teacher models). These findings show that PDI-guided distillation produces efficient and transferable skills grounded in the task-environment interaction. We release our code at https://github.com/EtaYang10th/spark-skills .

With LLMs shifting their role from statistical modeling of language to serving as general-purpose AI agents, how should LLM evaluations change? Arguably, a key ability of an AI agent is to flexibly combine, as needed, the basic skills it has learned. The capability to combine skills plays an important role in (human) pedagogy and also in a paper on emergence phenomena (Arora & Goyal, 2023). This work introduces Skill-Mix, a new evaluation to measure ability to combine skills. Using a list of N skills the evaluator repeatedly picks random subsets of k skills and asks the LLM to produce text combining that subset of skills. Since the number of subsets grows like N^k, for even modest k this evaluation will, with high probability, require the LLM to produce text significantly different from any text in the training set. The paper develops a methodology for (a) designing and administering such an evaluation, and (b) automatic grading (plus spot-checking by humans) of the results using GPT-4 as well as the open LLaMA-2 70B model. Administering a version of to popular chatbots gave results that, while generally in line with prior expectations, contained surprises. Sizeable differences exist among model capabilities that are not captured by their ranking on popular LLM leaderboards ("cramming for the leaderboard"). Furthermore, simple probability calculations indicate that GPT-4's reasonable performance on k=5 is suggestive of going beyond "stochastic parrot" behavior (Bender et al., 2021), i.e., it combines skills in ways that it had not seen during training. We sketch how the methodology can lead to a Skill-Mix based eco-system of open evaluations for AI capabilities of future models.

Large multi-modal language models are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains, making well-calibrated uncertainty essential. Traditional Bayesian methods approximate posteriors over all model weights, which becomes intractable for modern large models. For this reason, recent work instead considers Bayesian low-rank adaptation to enable tractable posterior approximation. Due to a lack of a standardized benchmark to evaluate these approaches, it remains unclear where these methods provide meaningful benefits. To fill this gap, we introduce Bayesian Adaptation Gym (BAG), a benchmark for the Bayesian adaptation of multi-modal language models. BAG provides reference implementations of classic Bayesian baselines and state-of-the-art adaptation methods, along with a multi-modal dataset and task suite designed to probe calibration, robustness under distribution shift, and decision-making under uncertainty via active learning. Using BAG, we conduct and report extensive experiments across model sizes, datasets, and tasks to highlight the successes and failures of current Bayesian adaptation approaches. To enable further research, BAG is fully open source: https://github.com/SRI-CSL/BayesAdapt.

In many applications of LLMs, natural language responses often have an underlying structure such as representing discrete labels, numerical values, or graphs. Yet, existing decoding and uncertainty estimation methods operate only in language space and largely disregard structural information. We address this by modeling LLM outputs directly in a task-dependent latent structure. By equipping this structure with a dissimilarity measure, we can compute Bayes-optimal responses. These are not selected from sampled generations but are newly synthesized by combining individual responses in the latent space. Across different tasks, Bayes-optimal responses consistently outperform standard decoding methods like beam search. Moreover, quantifying uncertainty via the induced Bayesian risk captures variations in terms of the latent structure and improves alignment with output quality and correctness. Our decision-theoretic framework is applicable to any problem that admits a latent response structure and enables reliable task-aware LLM predictions.

The optimization of expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions is prevalent in various scientific disciplines. Bayesian optimization is an automatic, general and sample-efficient method to solve these problems with minimal knowledge of the underlying function dynamics. However, the ability of Bayesian optimization to incorporate prior knowledge or beliefs about the function at hand in order to accelerate the optimization is limited, which reduces its appeal for knowledgeable practitioners with tight budgets. To allow domain experts to customize the optimization routine, we propose ColaBO, the first Bayesian-principled framework for incorporating prior beliefs beyond the typical kernel structure, such as the likely location of the optimizer or the optimal value. The generality of ColaBO makes it applicable across different Monte Carlo acquisition functions and types of user beliefs. We empirically demonstrate ColaBO's ability to substantially accelerate optimization when the prior information is accurate, and to retain approximately default performance when it is misleading.

Agent skills, which consist of reusable strategies that guide agent reasoning and action, have shown strong potential for improving model capability at inference time. However, current skill construction methods treat the problem as one-shot extraction, overlooking a fundamental tension: a skill tailored to the specific task fails to transfer, while the abstracted skill often provides insufficient guidance. We attribute this fragility to the absence of explicit mechanisms for skill specification and generalization. To address this gap, we introduce SkillComposer, a framework that decomposes skill construction into three learnable operations: create, improve, and merge. Trained via systematic rejection sampling recipe, SkillComposer enables language models to self-evolve skills at inference time and supports three deployment modes: offline for building generalized libraries, online for task-specific refinement, and hybrid for combining both. Comprehensive experiments on τ^2-Bench, LiveCodeBench v6, and AppWorld show that SkillComposer consistently outperforms baselines. Our SkillComposer-4B improves a 27B executor by up to +4.5 on agent tasks and +3.4 on code tasks, while generalizing across domains and task types unseen during training. Analysis reveals that merge and improve address orthogonal quality dimensions and that skill composition is a transferable meta-ability, providing a practical recipe for skill-augmented inference.

Long-horizon LLM agents leave traces that could become reusable experience, but raw trajectories are noisy and hard to govern. We treat Agent Skills as an experience schema that couples executable scripts, with non-executable guidance on procedures. Yet open skill ecosystems contain redundant, uneven, environment-sensitive artifacts, and indiscriminate updates can pollute future context. We present SkillsVote, a lifecycle-governance framework for Agent Skills from collection and recommendation to evolution. SkillsVote profiles a million-scale open-source corpus for environment requirements, quality, and verifiability, then synthesizes tasks for verifiable skills. Before execution, SkillsVote performs agentic library search over structured skill library to expose instructional skill context. After execution, it decomposes trajectories into skill-linked subtasks, attributes outcomes to skill use, agent exploration, environment, and result signals, and admits only successful reusable discoveries to evidence-gated updates. In our evaluation, offline evolution improves GPT-5.2 on Terminal-Bench 2.0 by up to 7.9 pp, while online evolution improves SWE-Bench Pro by up to 2.6 pp. Overall, governed external skill libraries can improve frozen agents without model updates when systems control exposure, credit, and preservation.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Skills are a promising way to improve LLM agent capabilities without retraining, while keeping the added procedure reusable and controllable. However, high-quality skills are still largely written by hand. We introduce SkillGen, a multi-agent framework that synthesizes a single auditable skill from trajectories generated by a base agent. The output is a human-readable artifact that can be inspected before use. Rather than merely summarizing trajectories, SkillGen leverages contrastive induction over both successful and failed trajectories to identify reusable success patterns, recurring failure modes, and behaviors that appear in nearby successes but are missing from failures. SkillGen then generates candidate skills and iteratively refines the skill. A key novelty in SkillGen is that we model agent skills as interventions to empirically verify the net effect of skills on the overall performance. Specifically, we compare outcomes on the same instances with and without the skill, so that we account for both repairs (cases where the skill fixes a baseline failure) and regressions (cases where the skill breaks a baseline success). Across a broad range of agents and datasets, SkillGen consistently improves held-out performance, outperforms existing skill-generation baselines, and produces skills that transfer across models.

Multi-agent AI systems have proven effective for complex reasoning. These systems are compounded by specialized agents, which collaborate through explicit communication, but incur substantial computational overhead. A natural question arises: can we achieve similar modularity benefits with a single agent that selects from a library of skills? We explore this question by viewing skills as internalized agent behaviors. From this perspective, a multi-agent system can be compiled into an equivalent single-agent system, trading inter-agent communication for skill selection. Our preliminary experiments suggest this approach can substantially reduce token usage and latency while maintaining competitive accuracy on reasoning benchmarks. However, this efficiency raises a deeper question that has received little attention: how does skill selection scale as libraries grow? Drawing on principles from cognitive science, we propose that LLM skill selection exhibits bounded capacity analogous to human decision-making. We investigate the scaling behavior of skill selection and observe a striking pattern. Rather than degrading gradually, selection accuracy remains stable up to a critical library size, then drops sharply, indicating a phase transition reminiscent of capacity limits in human cognition. Furthermore, we find evidence that semantic confusability among similar skills, rather than library size alone, plays a central role in this degradation. This perspective suggests that hierarchical organization, which has long helped humans manage complex choices, may similarly benefit AI systems. Our initial results with hierarchical routing support this hypothesis. This work opens new questions about the fundamental limits of semantic-based skill selection in LLMs and offers a cognitive-grounded framework and practical guidelines for designing scalable skill-based agents.

Neural network pruning is a highly effective technique aimed at reducing the computational and memory demands of large neural networks. In this research paper, we present a novel approach to pruning neural networks utilizing Bayesian inference, which can seamlessly integrate into the training procedure. Our proposed method leverages the posterior probabilities of the neural network prior to and following pruning, enabling the calculation of Bayes factors. The calculated Bayes factors guide the iterative pruning. Through comprehensive evaluations conducted on multiple benchmarks, we demonstrate that our method achieves desired levels of sparsity while maintaining competitive accuracy.

Memory-based meta-learning is a powerful technique to build agents that adapt fast to any task within a target distribution. A previous theoretical study has argued that this remarkable performance is because the meta-training protocol incentivises agents to behave Bayes-optimally. We empirically investigate this claim on a number of prediction and bandit tasks. Inspired by ideas from theoretical computer science, we show that meta-learned and Bayes-optimal agents not only behave alike, but they even share a similar computational structure, in the sense that one agent system can approximately simulate the other. Furthermore, we show that Bayes-optimal agents are fixed points of the meta-learning dynamics. Our results suggest that memory-based meta-learning might serve as a general technique for numerically approximating Bayes-optimal agents - that is, even for task distributions for which we currently don't possess tractable models.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

We propose a general-purpose approach for improving the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to intelligently and adaptively gather information from a user or other external source using the framework of sequential Bayesian experimental design (BED). This enables LLMs to act as effective multi-turn conversational agents and interactively interface with external environments. Our approach, which we call BED-LLM (Bayesian Experimental Design with Large Language Models), is based on iteratively choosing questions or queries that maximize the expected information gain (EIG) about the task of interest given the responses gathered previously. We show how this EIG can be formulated in a principled way using a probabilistic model derived from the LLM's belief distribution and provide detailed insights into key decisions in its construction. Further key to the success of BED-LLM are a number of specific innovations, such as a carefully designed estimator for the EIG, not solely relying on in-context updates for conditioning on previous responses, and a targeted strategy for proposing candidate queries. We find that BED-LLM achieves substantial gains in performance across a wide range of tests based on the 20-questions game and using the LLM to actively infer user preferences, compared to direct prompting of the LLM and other adaptive design strategies.

As the field progresses toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), there is a pressing need for more comprehensive and insightful evaluation frameworks that go beyond aggregate performance metrics. This paper introduces a unified rating system that jointly models the difficulty of individual test cases and the competency of AI models (or humans) across vision, language, and action domains. Unlike existing metrics that focus solely on models, our approach allows for fine-grained, difficulty-aware evaluations through competitive interactions between models and tasks, capturing both the long-tail distribution of real-world challenges and the competency gap between current models and full task mastery. We validate the generalizability and robustness of our system through extensive experiments on multiple established datasets and models across distinct AGI domains. The resulting rating distributions offer novel perspectives and interpretable insights into task difficulty, model progression, and the outstanding challenges that remain on the path to achieving full AGI task mastery.

We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research.We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements.

Accurately modeling the relationships between skills is a crucial part of human resources processes such as recruitment and employee development. Yet, no benchmarks exist to evaluate such methods directly. We construct and release SkillMatch, a benchmark for the task of skill relatedness, based on expert knowledge mining from millions of job ads. Additionally, we propose a scalable self-supervised learning technique to adapt a Sentence-BERT model based on skill co-occurrence in job ads. This new method greatly surpasses traditional models for skill relatedness as measured on SkillMatch. By releasing SkillMatch publicly, we aim to contribute a foundation for research towards increased accuracy and transparency of skill-based recommendation systems.

Most applications of machine learning to classification assume a closed set of balanced classes. This is at odds with the real world, where class occurrence statistics often follow a long-tailed power-law distribution and it is unlikely that all classes are seen in a single sample. Nonparametric Bayesian models naturally capture this phenomenon, but have significant practical barriers to widespread adoption, namely implementation complexity and computational inefficiency. To address this, we present a method for extracting the inductive bias from a nonparametric Bayesian model and transferring it to an artificial neural network. By simulating data with a nonparametric Bayesian prior, we can metalearn a sequence model that performs inference over an unlimited set of classes. After training, this "neural circuit" has distilled the corresponding inductive bias and can successfully perform sequential inference over an open set of classes. Our experimental results show that the metalearned neural circuit achieves comparable or better performance than particle filter-based methods for inference in these models while being faster and simpler to use than methods that explicitly incorporate Bayesian nonparametric inference.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

Skill self-evolution methods for LLM agents aim to turn execution trajectories into reusable skill documents. However, current pipelines typically derive skill patches from a single trajectory per task, merge them indiscriminately, and load the entire skill corpus during inference. These choices lead to unreliable evidence extraction, the accumulation of low-quality or even harmful skill edits, and inefficient use of context due to irrelevant or conflicting skill content. We propose SkillCAT, a framework that decomposes this process into three stages. (1) Contrastive Causal Extraction (CCE) samples multiple trajectories per task and contrasts same-task success/failure pairs to find the evidence that explains outcome differences. (2) Assessment-Augmented Evolution (AAE) replays each candidate patch on source-task clones, retains only those that do not damage task outcomes, and then merges the retained patches hierarchically. (3) Topology-Aware Task Execution (TTE) compiles the evolved skills into routable sub-skill topologies, so that inference loads only task-relevant capability nodes. We evaluate SkillCAT on widely-used agent benchmarks, including SpreadsheetBench, WikiTableQuestions, and DocVQA, and further assess cross-model and out-of-distribution generalization. Across these settings, SkillCAT improves the average score over the initial skill by up to 49.69%, demonstrating reliable and effective skill evolution.

BIG-Bench (Srivastava et al., 2022) is a diverse evaluation suite that focuses on tasks believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. Language models have already made good progress on this benchmark, with the best model in the BIG-Bench paper outperforming average reported human-rater results on 65% of the BIG-Bench tasks via few-shot prompting. But on what tasks do language models fall short of average human-rater performance, and are those tasks actually unsolvable by current language models? In this work, we focus on a suite of 23 challenging BIG-Bench tasks which we call BIG-Bench Hard (BBH). These are the task for which prior language model evaluations did not outperform the average human-rater. We find that applying chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting to BBH tasks enables PaLM to surpass the average human-rater performance on 10 of the 23 tasks, and Codex (code-davinci-002) to surpass the average human-rater performance on 17 of the 23 tasks. Since many tasks in BBH require multi-step reasoning, few-shot prompting without CoT, as done in the BIG-Bench evaluations (Srivastava et al., 2022), substantially underestimates the best performance and capabilities of language models, which is better captured via CoT prompting. As further analysis, we explore the interaction between CoT and model scale on BBH, finding that CoT enables emergent task performance on several BBH tasks with otherwise flat scaling curves.

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of thumb, or sometimes brute-force search. Much more appealing is the idea of developing automatic approaches which can optimize the performance of a given learning algorithm to the task at hand. In this work, we consider the automatic tuning problem within the framework of Bayesian optimization, in which a learning algorithm's generalization performance is modeled as a sample from a Gaussian process (GP). The tractable posterior distribution induced by the GP leads to efficient use of the information gathered by previous experiments, enabling optimal choices about what parameters to try next. Here we show how the effects of the Gaussian process prior and the associated inference procedure can have a large impact on the success or failure of Bayesian optimization. We show that thoughtful choices can lead to results that exceed expert-level performance in tuning machine learning algorithms. We also describe new algorithms that take into account the variable cost (duration) of learning experiments and that can leverage the presence of multiple cores for parallel experimentation. We show that these proposed algorithms improve on previous automatic procedures and can reach or surpass human expert-level optimization on a diverse set of contemporary algorithms including latent Dirichlet allocation, structured SVMs and convolutional neural networks.

This study investigates the consistency of feedback ratings generated by OpenAI's GPT-4, a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence language model, across multiple iterations, time spans and stylistic variations. The model rated responses to tasks within the Higher Education (HE) subject domain of macroeconomics in terms of their content and style. Statistical analysis was conducted in order to learn more about the interrater reliability, consistency of the ratings across iterations and the correlation between ratings in terms of content and style. The results revealed a high interrater reliability with ICC scores ranging between 0.94 and 0.99 for different timespans, suggesting that GPT-4 is capable of generating consistent ratings across repetitions with a clear prompt. Style and content ratings show a high correlation of 0.87. When applying a non-adequate style the average content ratings remained constant, while style ratings decreased, which indicates that the large language model (LLM) effectively distinguishes between these two criteria during evaluation. The prompt used in this study is furthermore presented and explained. Further research is necessary to assess the robustness and reliability of AI models in various use cases.

Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization. However, exact inference is often intractable, and scalable approximations may remain computationally expensive or require restrictive modeling assumptions that degrade predictive performance. Prior-Data Fitted and in-context models have recently emerged as an amortized alternative by learning to map datasets directly to predictive distributions, but existing approaches are tightly coupled to the support of the training prior and lack explicit mechanisms for adapting to new priors at test time, resulting in limited robustness under distribution shift. We introduce a multi-task in-context learning framework for amortized hierarchical Bayesian predictive inference that explicitly represents prior information as a prefix of in-context datasets. A transformer trained on sequences of prior and target tasks learns to adapt its predictions across families of priors. On a suite of evaluations with increasing difficulty, including out-of-meta-distribution priors and priors with high-dimensional latent structures, our method matches oracle Bayesian predictors while being orders of magnitude faster. We further demonstrate its practical relevance on a real-world spatiotemporal temperature prediction benchmark. Code is available at https://github.com/martianmartina/multi-task-bayesian-icl/.

The rapid advancement of visual generative models necessitates efficient and reliable evaluation methods. Arena platform, which gathers user votes on model comparisons, can rank models with human preferences. However, traditional Arena methods, while established, require an excessive number of comparisons for ranking to converge and are vulnerable to preference noise in voting, suggesting the need for better approaches tailored to contemporary evaluation challenges. In this paper, we introduce K-Sort Arena, an efficient and reliable platform based on a key insight: images and videos possess higher perceptual intuitiveness than texts, enabling rapid evaluation of multiple samples simultaneously. Consequently, K-Sort Arena employs K-wise comparisons, allowing K models to engage in free-for-all competitions, which yield much richer information than pairwise comparisons. To enhance the robustness of the system, we leverage probabilistic modeling and Bayesian updating techniques. We propose an exploration-exploitation-based matchmaking strategy to facilitate more informative comparisons. In our experiments, K-Sort Arena exhibits 16.3x faster convergence compared to the widely used ELO algorithm. To further validate the superiority and obtain a comprehensive leaderboard, we collect human feedback via crowdsourced evaluations of numerous cutting-edge text-to-image and text-to-video models. Thanks to its high efficiency, K-Sort Arena can continuously incorporate emerging models and update the leaderboard with minimal votes. Our project has undergone several months of internal testing and is now available at https://huggingface.co/spaces/ksort/K-Sort-Arena

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

Bayesian optimization is an approach to optimizing objective functions that take a long time (minutes or hours) to evaluate. It is best-suited for optimization over continuous domains of less than 20 dimensions, and tolerates stochastic noise in function evaluations. It builds a surrogate for the objective and quantifies the uncertainty in that surrogate using a Bayesian machine learning technique, Gaussian process regression, and then uses an acquisition function defined from this surrogate to decide where to sample. In this tutorial, we describe how Bayesian optimization works, including Gaussian process regression and three common acquisition functions: expected improvement, entropy search, and knowledge gradient. We then discuss more advanced techniques, including running multiple function evaluations in parallel, multi-fidelity and multi-information source optimization, expensive-to-evaluate constraints, random environmental conditions, multi-task Bayesian optimization, and the inclusion of derivative information. We conclude with a discussion of Bayesian optimization software and future research directions in the field. Within our tutorial material we provide a generalization of expected improvement to noisy evaluations, beyond the noise-free setting where it is more commonly applied. This generalization is justified by a formal decision-theoretic argument, standing in contrast to previous ad hoc modifications.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Agentic large language models often rely on skills, reusable natural language procedures that guide planning, action, and tool use. In practice, skills are typically improved through prompt engineering or by aligning the task LLM itself, which is costly, model-specific, and often infeasible for closed-source models. Skill optimization is not a one-step problem but a recurrent process with two coupled levels of credit assignment: a useful skill must improve rollout quality under current conditioning, while a useful revision must turn observed outcomes into a better skill for the next round. We propose Skill-R1, a reinforcement learning framework for instance-level recurrent skill optimization from verifiable rewards. Rather than updating the task LLM, Skill-R1 trains a lightweight skill generator that conditions on the task context, prior rollouts, and their verified outcomes to produce skills that steer a frozen task LLM. This preserves black-box compatibility with both open- and closed-source models while making adaptation substantially cheaper than model-level updates. Skill-R1 proceeds over multiple generations: at each step, the current skill induces rollouts whose verified outcomes are fed back to produce the next revision. To optimize this recurrent process, we introduce a bi-level group-relative policy optimization objective combining intra-generation and inter-generation advantages. The intra-generation term compares rollouts under shared skill conditioning, while the inter-generation term rewards revisions that improve behavior across successive generations. Together, these provide a principled objective for directional skill evolution rather than one-shot self-refinement. Empirically, Skill-R1 achieves consistent gains over no-skill baselines and standard GRPO across benchmarks with verifiable rewards, with particularly strong improvements on complex, multi-step tasks.

We introduce Agent K v1.0, an end-to-end autonomous data science agent designed to automate, optimise, and generalise across diverse data science tasks. Fully automated, Agent K v1.0 manages the entire data science life cycle by learning from experience. It leverages a highly flexible structured reasoning framework to enable it to dynamically process memory in a nested structure, effectively learning from accumulated experience stored to handle complex reasoning tasks. It optimises long- and short-term memory by selectively storing and retrieving key information, guiding future decisions based on environmental rewards. This iterative approach allows it to refine decisions without fine-tuning or backpropagation, achieving continuous improvement through experiential learning. We evaluate our agent's apabilities using Kaggle competitions as a case study. Following a fully automated protocol, Agent K v1.0 systematically addresses complex and multimodal data science tasks, employing Bayesian optimisation for hyperparameter tuning and feature engineering. Our new evaluation framework rigorously assesses Agent K v1.0's end-to-end capabilities to generate and send submissions starting from a Kaggle competition URL. Results demonstrate that Agent K v1.0 achieves a 92.5\% success rate across tasks, spanning tabular, computer vision, NLP, and multimodal domains. When benchmarking against 5,856 human Kaggle competitors by calculating Elo-MMR scores for each, Agent K v1.0 ranks in the top 38\%, demonstrating an overall skill level comparable to Expert-level users. Notably, its Elo-MMR score falls between the first and third quartiles of scores achieved by human Grandmasters. Furthermore, our results indicate that Agent K v1.0 has reached a performance level equivalent to Kaggle Grandmaster, with a record of 6 gold, 3 silver, and 7 bronze medals, as defined by Kaggle's progression system.

The growth of agent skills has transformed how agentic systems are built, evaluated, and deployed. As skill libraries continue to scale, rigorous evaluation becomes critical to ensuring their utility, quality, and safety in real-world applications. Consequently, the field is undergoing an emerging paradigm shift from isolated skill creation to automated, evaluation-driven skill evolution. In this survey, we systematically examine the landscape of skill evolution and evaluation beyond foundational skill creation. We categorize evolution into four distinct paradigms, spanning execution feedback, trajectory distillation, compression, and reinforcement learning, showing how each element contributes to improving skill utility and reliability. We also provide an analysis of six skill-centric benchmark categories, identifying structural gaps in benchmark coverage, trade-offs, and metric richness to advance skill research. Finally, we identify open directions for building skill ecosystems that are generalizable, efficient, and verifiably safe. The project URL is https://github.com/Cassie07/AgentSkill_Survey

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Skills are a useful abstraction for software agents, turning human and agent experience into reusable procedural knowledge. Yet existing skill libraries are mostly hand-written, text-centric, or derived from agent traces, leaving tutorial videos and other multimodal human resources largely underused. We present RESOURCE2SKILL, a framework that distills multimodal resources, including tutorial videos, repositories, articles, and reference artifacts, into executable skills for software agents. RESOURCE2SKILL organizes these skills as a hierarchical multimodal Skill Wiki, where each entry combines structured text, code, visual examples, metadata, and provenance. This design preserves complementary signals from different resources: videos capture temporal operations and visual effects, code captures executable tool patterns, and articles or artifacts provide conceptual and stylistic grounding. At inference time, agents retrieve and compose relevant skills from the wiki; when coverage is insufficient, the same construction operator can acquire new skills online. Across seven practical authoring domains, RESOURCE2SKILL improves average overall score by +11.9 percentage points over no-skill agents and outperforms strong harness baselines in 26 of 28 main-aggregate model-domain cells. Ablations confirm the value of multimodal skill format, hierarchical organization, source diversity, selection strategy, and online acquisition.

Agent skills, structured packages of procedural knowledge and executable resources that agents dynamically load at inference time, have become a reliable mechanism for augmenting LLM agents. Yet inference-time skill augmentation is fundamentally limited: retrieval noise introduces irrelevant guidance, injected skill content imposes substantial token overhead, and the model never truly acquires the knowledge it merely follows. We ask whether skills can instead be internalized into model parameters, enabling zero-shot autonomous behavior without any runtime skill retrieval. We introduce SKILL0, an in-context reinforcement learning framework designed for skill internalization. SKILL0 introduces a training-time curriculum that begins with full skill context and progressively withdraws it. Skills are grouped offline by category and rendered with interaction history into a compact visual context, teaching he model tool invocation and multi-turn task completion. A Dynamic Curriculum then evaluates each skill file's on-policy helpfulness, retaining only those from which the current policy still benefits within a linearly decaying budget, until the agent operates in a fully zero-shot setting. Extensive agentic experiments demonstrate that SKILL0 achieves substantial improvements over the standard RL baseline (+9.7\% for ALFWorld and +6.6\% for Search-QA), while maintaining a highly efficient context of fewer than 0.5k tokens per step. Our code is available at https://github.com/ZJU-REAL/SkillZero.

Long-horizon agentic tasks pose a fundamental credit assignment challenge for outcome-base reinforcement learning: trajectory-level rewards verify final correctness but provide limited guidance on which intermediate reasoning steps or tool interactions contribute to the outcome. The difficulty is especially pronounced in multi-turn search agents, where successful trajectories may contain misleading actions and failed trajectories may contain valuable evidence-gathering steps. We propose PBSD (Privileged Bayesian Self-Distillation), a Bayes-calibrated self-distillation method for fine-grained credit assignment under sparse final rewards. PBSD measures trajectory quality through the posterior-to-prior probability ratio of the verified answer and applies Bayes' rule to convert this hard-to-estimate answer-side ratio into a tractable likelihood ratio between a standard student model and a privileged answer-conditioned teacher model. Autoregressive decomposition of this Bayesian evidence score yields turn-level signals that identify whether each intermediate turn supports or undermines the verified outcome. Consequently, PBSD provides a principled and elegant reweighting scheme that transforms sparse outcome supervision into Bayes-calibrated turn-level credit signals, while remaining fully compatible with standard policy optimization. Experiments demonstrate that PBSD consistently enhances performance across both in-domain and out-of-domain settings, and effectively transfers knowledge from short-context training to long-context inference, suggesting that its fine-grained credit assignment mechanism facilitates more effective policy learning and yields improved generalization.

LLM agents increasingly retrieve externally curated skills-procedural instructions retrieved at decision time-to improve performance on long-horizon interactive tasks. Existing skill libraries are typically treated as model-agnostic, reusing the same skill formulations across backbones with substantially different capacities and behaviors. However, our controlled experiments across multiple model scales show that skill effectiveness is strongly model-dependent: a skill that benefits one backbone can harm another. Motivated by this observation, we propose MASA Model-Aware Skill Alignment, a framework that adapts skills to each target backbone without modifying agent weights. MASA operates in two stages: (1) a hierarchical skill evolution pipeline that iteratively rewrites general and task-specific skills using hill climbing and UCB-driven tree search, guided by environment feedback and model capability profiles; and (2) a lightweight model-conditioned skill rewriter trained on evolution trajectories to reproduce the adaptation in a single forward pass. Experiments across three interactive environments and four backbones show that MASA consistently achieves the best overall performance, with gains of up to 25.8 points over the strongest baseline. The learned rewriter further generalizes to unseen tasks and environments without additional search, consistently outperforming a much larger teacher LLM at a fraction of the inference cost.

LLM agents are increasingly expected not only to complete isolated tasks, but also to carry bounded representations of human expertise, judgment, and interaction style. Building such person-grounded agents remains difficult because actionable knowledge associated with a person or role is usually embedded in heterogeneous traces rather than written as clean instructions. Existing memory and persona systems capture fragments of this evidence, while skill frameworks provide portable packaging formats; however, there is no end-to-end workflow for distilling these traces into inspectable, correctable, and agent-usable skills. We present an automated trace-to-skill distillation system for generating person-grounded AI skills via expert knowledge distillation. Given materials from a target person or role, COLLEAGUE.SKILL produces a versioned skill package with two coordinated tracks: a capability track for practices, mental models, and decision heuristics, and a bounded behavior track for communication style, interaction rules, and correction history. The package can be inspected, invoked, updated through natural-language feedback, rolled back, installed across agent hosts, and optionally prepared for controlled distribution. We describe the artifact contract, generation workflow, correction lifecycle, deployment surface, and domain presets implemented in the open-source system. At the time of writing, the public repository has approximately 18.5k GitHub stars; the gallery lists 215 skills from 165 contributors and more than 100k cumulative stars across listed skill cards. The system illustrates how person-grounded skills can be represented as portable, correctable packages rather than opaque prompts or hidden memories.

Skill Classification (SC) is the task of classifying job competences from job postings. This work is the first in SC applied to Danish job vacancy data. We release the first Danish job posting dataset: Kompetencer (en: competences), annotated for nested spans of competences. To improve upon coarse-grained annotations, we make use of The European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO; le Vrang et al., 2014) taxonomy API to obtain fine-grained labels via distant supervision. We study two setups: The zero-shot and few-shot classification setting. We fine-tune English-based models and RemBERT (Chung et al., 2020) and compare them to in-language Danish models. Our results show RemBERT significantly outperforms all other models in both the zero-shot and the few-shot setting.

Epistemic Uncertainty is a measure of the lack of knowledge of a learner which diminishes with more evidence. While existing work focuses on using the variance of the Bayesian posterior due to parameter uncertainty as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we argue that this does not capture the part of lack of knowledge induced by model misspecification. We discuss how the excess risk, which is the gap between the generalization error of a predictor and the Bayes predictor, is a sound measure of epistemic uncertainty which captures the effect of model misspecification. We thus propose a principled framework for directly estimating the excess risk by learning a secondary predictor for the generalization error and subtracting an estimate of aleatoric uncertainty, i.e., intrinsic unpredictability. We discuss the merits of this novel measure of epistemic uncertainty, and highlight how it differs from variance-based measures of epistemic uncertainty and addresses its major pitfall. Our framework, Direct Epistemic Uncertainty Prediction (DEUP) is particularly interesting in interactive learning environments, where the learner is allowed to acquire novel examples in each round. Through a wide set of experiments, we illustrate how existing methods in sequential model optimization can be improved with epistemic uncertainty estimates from DEUP, and how DEUP can be used to drive exploration in reinforcement learning. We also evaluate the quality of uncertainty estimates from DEUP for probabilistic image classification and predicting synergies of drug combinations.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

Energy-Based Models (EBMs), also known as non-normalized probabilistic models, specify probability density or mass functions up to an unknown normalizing constant. Unlike most other probabilistic models, EBMs do not place a restriction on the tractability of the normalizing constant, thus are more flexible to parameterize and can model a more expressive family of probability distributions. However, the unknown normalizing constant of EBMs makes training particularly difficult. Our goal is to provide a friendly introduction to modern approaches for EBM training. We start by explaining maximum likelihood training with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and proceed to elaborate on MCMC-free approaches, including Score Matching (SM) and Noise Constrastive Estimation (NCE). We highlight theoretical connections among these three approaches, and end with a brief survey on alternative training methods, which are still under active research. Our tutorial is targeted at an audience with basic understanding of generative models who want to apply EBMs or start a research project in this direction.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce chain-of-thought reasoning, they lack a principled framework to capture latent structures and model uncertainty, especially in compositional reasoning tasks. We propose Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian prompting framework that guides LLMs to simulate key principles of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in natural language. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise or specialized training, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions or scarce data. We evaluated our model on several compositional reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

The vision of a broadly capable and goal-directed agent, such as an Internet-browsing agent in the digital world and a household humanoid in the physical world, has rapidly advanced, thanks to the generalization capability of foundation models. Such a generalist agent needs to have a large and diverse skill repertoire, such as finding directions between two travel locations and buying specific items from the Internet. If each skill needs to be specified manually through a fixed set of human-annotated instructions, the agent's skill repertoire will necessarily be limited due to the quantity and diversity of human-annotated instructions. In this work, we address this challenge by proposing Proposer-Agent-Evaluator, an effective learning system that enables foundation model agents to autonomously discover and practice skills in the wild. At the heart of PAE is a context-aware task proposer that autonomously proposes tasks for the agent to practice with context information of the environment such as user demos or even just the name of the website itself for Internet-browsing agents. Then, the agent policy attempts those tasks with thoughts and actual grounded operations in the real world with resulting trajectories evaluated by an autonomous VLM-based success evaluator. The success evaluation serves as the reward signal for the agent to refine its policies through RL. We validate PAE on challenging vision-based web navigation, using both real-world and self-hosted websites from WebVoyager and WebArena.To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first effective learning system to apply autonomous task proposal with RL for agents that generalizes real-world human-annotated benchmarks with SOTA performances. Our open-source checkpoints and code can be found in https://yanqval.github.io/PAE/

Graph-based collaborative filtering methods have prevailing performance for recommender systems since they can capture high-order information between users and items, in which the graphs are constructed from the observed user-item interactions that might miss links or contain spurious positive interactions in industrial scenarios. The Bayesian Graph Neural Network framework approaches this issue with generative models for the interaction graphs. The critical problem is to devise a proper family of graph generative models tailored to recommender systems. We propose an efficient generative model that jointly considers the preferences of users, the concurrence of items and some important graph structure information. Experiments on four popular benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed graph generative methods for recommender systems.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) require scalable sampling algorithms to approximate posterior distributions over parameters. Existing stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) methods are highly sensitive to the choice of stepsize and adaptive variants such as pSGLD typically fail to sample the correct invariant measure without addition of a costly divergence correction term. In this work, we build on the recently proposed `SamAdams' framework for timestep adaptation (Leimkuhler, Lohmann, and Whalley 2025), introducing an adaptive scheme: SA-SGLD, which employs time rescaling to modulate the stepsize according to a monitored quantity (typically the local gradient norm). SA-SGLD can automatically shrink stepsizes in regions of high curvature and expand them in flatter regions, improving both stability and mixing without introducing bias. We show that our method can achieve more accurate posterior sampling than SGLD on high-curvature 2D toy examples and in image classification with BNNs using sharp priors.

The handling of probabilities in the form of uncertainty or partial information is an essential task for LLMs in many settings and applications. A common approach to evaluate an LLM's probabilistic reasoning capabilities is to assess its ability to answer questions pertaining to probability through the use of multiple-choice questions (MCQs). However, this paradigm, which we refer to as explicit probabilistic reasoning, has been shown in the literature to yield significant limitations (e.g., sensitivity to answer ordering). In this work, we introduce an alternative approach, named implicit probabilistic reasoning, which evaluates the models' ability to integrate probabilistic reasoning into their text generation process. To achieve this, we rephrase MCQs as text-completion scenarios with a determined set of outcomes and compare the model's next-token probability assignments to the true likelihood of the outcomes. In line with previous work, we find that models exhibit solid performance in their explicit probabilistic reasoning (i.e., answers to MCQs). However, during text completion (i.e., implicit probabilistic reasoning), where the same information must be taken into account to generate text, the models' predictions often significantly diverge from the known ground truth. For instance, our evaluation method reveals that implicit probabilistic reasoning is improperly influenced by many factors, such as independent prior events, partial observations about a result, or statistical background information. All of these issues can cause erroneous results to be produced in text generation, which are not detected by conventional MCQ-based evaluation.

Existing approaches to skill proficiency estimation often rely on black-box video classifiers, ignoring multi-view context and lacking explainability. We present ProfVLM, a compact vision-language model that reformulates this task as generative reasoning: it jointly predicts skill level and generates expert-like feedback from egocentric and exocentric videos. Central to our method is an AttentiveGatedProjector that dynamically fuses multi-view features, projected from a frozen TimeSformer backbone into a language model tuned for feedback generation. Trained on EgoExo4D with expert commentaries, ProfVLM surpasses state-of-the-art methods while using up to 20x fewer parameters and reducing training time by up to 60%. Our approach not only achieves superior accuracy across diverse activities, but also outputs natural language critiques aligned with performance, offering transparent reasoning. These results highlight generative vision-language modeling as a powerful new direction for skill assessment.

Adding procedural skills to an LLM agent is typically evaluated by average improvement in task success. However, this metric hides an important cost: skills can also make agents worse. We measure both sides by comparing agents with and without skills across nearly 6,000 runs spanning two office automation benchmarks and three model harness stacks. This allows us to distinguish two outcomes. A regression is a task solved without skills but failed after skills are added. A residual failure is a task that fails both with and without skills. We find that regressions are substantial enough that the best performing skills outperform others primarily by regressing less, not by gaining more. We identify three causes of regression: (i) skill description osmosis, a skill changes an agent's behavior simply by being present in context, even when it is never invoked; (ii) grounding displacement, a skill's prescribed procedure overrides how the agent interprets its inputs; and (iii) verification displacement, where the procedure suppresses checks the agent would otherwise perform on its outputs. Analysing persistent failures reveals the same underlying pattern. Existing skills overemphasize procedural guidance the stage least often responsible for failure while under supporting grounding and verification, the dominant sources of remaining errors. After correcting evaluation artifacts and studying traces, we find many regressions and persistent failures recoverable through better grounding and verification. Procedural skills should be evaluated by decomposing their net effect into gains and regressions, not by aggregate improvement alone. We identify three regression modes skills should avoid, and find that reliability depends more on grounding and verification than on procedural skill choice.

The transition from monolithic language models to modular, skill-equipped agents marks a defining shift in how large language models (LLMs) are deployed in practice. Rather than encoding all procedural knowledge within model weights, agent skills -- composable packages of instructions, code, and resources that agents load on demand -- enable dynamic capability extension without retraining. It is formalized in a paradigm of progressive disclosure, portable skill definitions, and integration with the Model Context Protocol (MCP). This survey provides a comprehensive treatment of the agent skills landscape, as it has rapidly evolved during the last few months. We organize the field along four axes: (i) architectural foundations, examining the SKILL.md specification, progressive context loading, and the complementary roles of skills and MCP; (ii) skill acquisition, covering reinforcement learning with skill libraries, autonomous skill discovery (SEAgent), and compositional skill synthesis; (iii) deployment at scale, including the computer-use agent (CUA) stack, GUI grounding advances, and benchmark progress on OSWorld and SWE-bench; and (iv) security, where recent empirical analyses reveal that 26.1% of community-contributed skills contain vulnerabilities, motivating our proposed Skill Trust and Lifecycle Governance Framework -- a four-tier, gate-based permission model that maps skill provenance to graduated deployment capabilities. We identify seven open challenges -- from cross-platform skill portability to capability-based permission models -- and propose a research agenda for realizing trustworthy, self-improving skill ecosystems. Unlike prior surveys that broadly cover LLM agents or tool use, this work focuses specifically on the emerging skill abstraction layer and its implications for the next generation of agentic systems. Project repo: https://github.com/scienceaix/agentskills

With the rapid evolution of Large Language Model (LLM) agent ecosystems, centralized skill marketplaces have emerged as pivotal infrastructure for augmenting agent capabilities. However, these marketplaces face unprecedented security challenges, primarily stemming from semantic-behavioral inconsistency and inter-skill combinatorial risks, where individually benign skills induce malicious behaviors during collaborative invocation. To address these vulnerabilities, we propose SkillProbe, a multi-stage security auditing framework driven by multi-agent collaboration. SkillProbe introduces a "Skills-for-Skills" design paradigm, encapsulating auditing processes into standardized skill modules to drive specialized agents through a rigorous pipeline, including admission filtering, semantic-behavioral alignment detection, and combinatorial risk simulation. We conducted a large-scale evaluation using 8 mainstream LLM series across 2,500 real-world skills from ClawHub. Our results reveal a striking popularity-security paradox, where download volume is not a reliable proxy for security quality, as over 90% of high-popularity skills failed to pass rigorous auditing. Crucially, we discovered that high-risk skills form a single giant connected component within the risk-link dimension, demonstrating that cascaded risks are systemic rather than isolated occurrences. We hope that SkillProbe will inspire researchers to provide a scalable governance infrastructure for constructing a trustworthy Agentic Web. SkillProbe is accessible for public experience at skillhub.holosai.io.

We are committed to learning human skill generators at key-step levels. The generation of skills is a challenging endeavor, but its successful implementation could greatly facilitate human skill learning and provide more experience for embodied intelligence. Although current video generation models can synthesis simple and atomic human operations, they struggle with human skills due to their complex procedure process. Human skills involve multi-step, long-duration actions and complex scene transitions, so the existing naive auto-regressive methods for synthesizing long videos cannot generate human skills. To address this, we propose a novel task, the Key-step Skill Generation (KS-Gen), aimed at reducing the complexity of generating human skill videos. Given the initial state and a skill description, the task is to generate video clips of key steps to complete the skill, rather than a full-length video. To support this task, we introduce a carefully curated dataset and define multiple evaluation metrics to assess performance. Considering the complexity of KS-Gen, we propose a new framework for this task. First, a multimodal large language model (MLLM) generates descriptions for key steps using retrieval argument. Subsequently, we use a Key-step Image Generator (KIG) to address the discontinuity between key steps in skill videos. Finally, a video generation model uses these descriptions and key-step images to generate video clips of the key steps with high temporal consistency. We offer a detailed analysis of the results, hoping to provide more insights on human skill generation. All models and data are available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/KS-Gen.

Selecting high-quality pre-training data is important for creating capable language models, but existing methods rely on simple heuristics. We introduce QuRating, a method for selecting pre-training data that captures the abstract qualities of texts which humans intuitively perceive. In this paper, we investigate four qualities - writing style, required expertise, facts & trivia, and educational value. We find that LLMs are able to discern these qualities and observe that they are better at making pairwise judgments of texts than at rating the quality of a text directly. We train a QuRater model to learn scalar ratings from pairwise judgments, and use it to annotate a 260B training corpus with quality ratings for each of the four criteria. In our experiments, we select 30B tokens according to the different quality ratings and train 1.3B-parameter language models on the selected data. We find that it is important to balance quality and diversity, as selecting only the highest-rated documents leads to poor results. When we sample using quality ratings as logits over documents, our models achieve lower perplexity and stronger in-context learning performance than baselines. Beyond data selection, we use the quality ratings to construct a training curriculum which improves performance without changing the training dataset. We extensively analyze the quality ratings and discuss their characteristics, biases, and wider implications.

Skills are becoming a reusable operational layer for LLM agents, encoding SOPs, domain rules, tool workflows, scripts, and validation routines. In realistic skill repositories, overlapping skills make reliable skill-use difficult. Final verifier success is too coarse for both evaluation and training, since an agent may pass through trial and error while selecting distractor skills, skipping required steps, composing workflows incorrectly or omitting final checks. We introduce SkillCoach, a self-evolving rubric framework for evaluating and enhancing agentic skill-use. SkillCoach derives skill-grounded process rubrics from real rollouts and evaluates trajectories along four dimensions: skill selection, skill following, skill composition, and skill-grounded reflection. It keeps the external verifier as a separate outcome signal, allowing process quality to be distinguished from accidental task success. The evolved rubrics further serve as process supervision for selecting high-quality training trajectories. Experiments show that evolved rubrics substantially improve evaluation quality, expose failures hidden by final accuracy, and provide stronger supervision signals than outcome-only filtering for enhancing agentic skill-use.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

In the era of large language models, creative writing quality lacks a computable theoretical anchor. The dominant approaches are rubric scoring -- decomposing holistic aesthetic judgment into sub-scores -- and RLHF preference signals -- replacing quality with group votes. Both bypass the statistical structure of the text itself. This paper provides an information-theoretic foundation to fill this gap. We propose 'calibrated surprise' as the information-theoretic essence of excellent creative writing. This judgment matches reading intuition and covers its opposite. This literary judgment admits a precise mathematical formulation. Under full-dimensional constraints Y, feasible writing choices are forced into an extremely narrow space. The rare survivors are, from the unconstrained perspective, exactly the least predictable choices. Both are measured precisely by Shannon mutual information I(X;Y) = H(X) - H(X|Y) -- 'calibrated' corresponds to H(X|Y) approaching 0; 'surprising' corresponds to H(X) going high. The subtraction structure of the formula naturally separates 'well-grounded surprise' from 'pure noise'. We use token-level logprobs from Qwen1.5-7B as an operational proxy for the ideal reader's probability distribution. Across 20 pairs (12 Chinese / 8 English) of high-quality vs. systematically degraded literary passages, 20/20 pairs support the core prediction: high-quality passages have systematically higher I(X;Y) than their degraded versions.