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Aug 18

Round-Trip Consistency: Bidirectional Diffusion Models Can Predict Their Own Rollout Errors

Autoregressive models accumulate error over long rollouts, yet at deployment there is no ground truth to measure it against. We train a single conditional latent diffusion model that steps a dynamical system forward or backward in time via a direction flag, and show that this bidirectionality supplies a measurement-free test-time error signal: rolling forward i steps and then backward i steps must return the model to its start, so the round-trip discrepancy C_i is a self-supervised proxy for the unobservable rollout error: no ensembles, no held-out data, no governing equations, for one extra rollout. We validate on compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), an astrophysical turbulent radiative mixing layer, and natural face videos (CelebV-HQ). On held-out MHD trajectories, C_i ranks rollout error (Spearman 0.91-0.98 at fixed depth; 0.69 pm 0.16 within trajectories), and a simple calibrator fit on training rollouts predicts its magnitude to within 1.14times (68%) and 1.29times (95%) with near-nominal coverage - one nat beyond a depth-only predictor, transferring to all six decoded physical fields. The same signal flags the out-of-distribution Orszag-Tang vortex (AUROC 0.98; 1.0 by depth 10) exactly where sampling-dispersion baselines invert, and it cuts incurred error by 15% at 80% coverage - three times the depth-only baseline. Bidirectional training comes at negative cost, beating direction specialists in both directions, and the backward direction doubles as a fast inverse solver. On LE-PDE-UQ's turbulent Navier-Stokes benchmark, a single bidirectional model reaches accuracy within 1.3times of their ten-model ensemble at a tenth of the training cost, with the best training-free pixel-level calibration. Round-trip consistency turns reversibility into a practical trust signal for generative models.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 1 3

Prior Audit-Repair Context Shifts LLM Verifier Thresholds Toward Leniency

Automated checking pipelines increasingly place one language model as the checker and another (or the same one) as the fixer. We ask whether that wiring changes what the checker reports. Measuring false alarms on human-verified-correct ProcessBench traces with the present task held byte-identical, we find that a completed audit -> repair episode already in the model's context lowers false alarms in 15 of 15 model x wording combinations, by 2.8 to 11.5 percentage points against a length-matched non-audit control, a 9 to 25% reduction relative to that control. The direction contradicts what the accumulated-message literature predicts: an episode whose audit reported an error lowers false alarms further still, at all five wordings on the model where that manipulation lands cleanly, though a negativity asymmetry predicts more flagging. Decomposing the episode finds repair content and audit verdict complementary: different components carry the effect on different model families. Signal-detection analysis locates the change in the threshold rather than in discrimination -- the criterion moves in 15 of 15 combinations and survives correction in 13 while d' survives in none, though the d' test is half as sensitive by construction -- and a hand audit of 50 false alarms finds 82% simply wrong, so at this operating point the shift need not be harmful. With reasoning enabled the effect keeps its relative size on both models tested, and the threshold reading holds there too.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 16 1

Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents: Anticipating Capabilities, Tactics, and Strategic Implications

This report introduces the concept of "Highly Autonomous Cyber-Capable Agents" (HACCAs), AI systems capable of autonomously conducting multi-stage cyber campaigns at a level comparable to today's top criminal hacking groups or state-affiliated threat actors, and analyzes the security implications of their emergence. The report: (1) Defines what HACCAs are and forecasts when they might arrive, establishing a clear framework for an autonomous cyber agent that can operate across the full attack lifecycle without meaningful human direction; (2) Identifies five core operational tactics, detailing how HACCAs could sustain themselves in the wild, from autonomous infrastructure setup and credential harvesting to detection evasion and adaptive shutdown avoidance; (3) Analyzes the strategic implications, including how HACCAs could intensify interstate cyber competition, lower the barrier to entry for sophisticated operations, and proliferate advanced offensive capabilities to criminal groups and less-resourced state actors; (4) Flags two tail risks that deserve serious attention: the potential for autonomous cyber operations to trigger inadvertent cyber-nuclear escalation, and the possibility of sustained loss of control over rogue HACCA deployments; (5) Proposes seven policy recommendations across three goals: understanding the emerging threat, defending against HACCAs, and ensuring their responsible development and deployment.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 11

Direction-Preserving Number Representations

Low-precision number formats are widely used in modern machine learning systems due to their efficiency. Accurate direction representation is key to the accuracy of vector operations. This work precisely explores the extent to which the direction of a vector can be represented by selecting its scalar elements from a common finite alphabet of a given size. This is standard practice in machine learning, where low-precision significands may be narrow-width floating-point or integer values. A geometric framework is introduced for analyzing the directional coverage of such product-structured codes. This work analytically quantifies the suboptimality gap between such product-structured codes and spherical codes for the vector as a whole, in both low and asymptotically high dimensions. Furthermore, within the product code class, it is proven that the standard formats of two's complement, fixed-point, and floating-point are suboptimal, again with quantified gap, pointing to the potential to develop new scalar number formats. Such scalar alphabets are numerically optimized across multiple block dimensions for directional coverage, including the dimension used in NVIDIA's NVFP4 format. Experimental results are presented comparing the performance of standard formats and the optimized alphabet. We find that for four bits, NVIDIA's choice of E2M1 closely approximates the optimized alphabet, providing a geometric explanation for its strong performance in low-precision machine learning workloads and an analytical understanding of the link between that superiority and block size. We provide open-source formal proofs in Lean for the theorems in this work, along with the experimental code and the optimized alphabets obtained.

  • 2 authors
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May 7

Zero-Shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Collision Mitigation in Continuous Environment

We propose the zero-shot Vision-and-Language Navigation with Collision Mitigation (VLN-CM), which takes these considerations. VLN-CM is composed of four modules and predicts the direction and distance of the next movement at each step. We utilize large foundation models for each modules. To select the direction, we use the Attention Spot Predictor (ASP), View Selector (VS), and Progress Monitor (PM). The ASP employs a Large Language Model (e.g. ChatGPT) to split navigation instructions into attention spots, which are objects or scenes at the location to move to (e.g. a yellow door). The VS selects from panorama images provided at 30-degree intervals the one that includes the attention spot, using CLIP similarity. We then choose the angle of the selected image as the direction to move in. The PM uses a rule-based approach to decide which attention spot to focus on next, among multiple spots derived from the instructions. If the similarity between the current attention spot and the visual observations decreases consecutively at each step, the PM determines that the agent has passed the current spot and moves on to the next one. For selecting the distance to move, we employed the Open Map Predictor (OMP). The OMP uses panorama depth information to predict an occupancy mask. We then selected a collision-free distance in the predicted direction based on the occupancy mask. We evaluated our method using the validation data of VLN-CE. Our approach showed better performance than several baseline methods, and the OPM was effective in mitigating collisions for the agent.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 7, 2024